《黑色》日报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry continues to reduce production and inventory. Rebar maintains a large supply - demand gap and good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand and weak demand in 2026 limit price upward elasticity, but production cuts support steel prices. Raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are expected to drive steel prices to fluctuate upward within a range (rebar 3000 - 3200, hot - rolled coil 3150 - 3350) [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will transition from loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. High inventory suppresses prices, while low - inventory restocking expectations support prices. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with short - term prices fluctuating strongly in the range of 770 - 840 [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the spot market is weak, with increased inventory and weak downstream demand. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts, there is still a price - cut expectation. Both suggest short - selling at high prices and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance in the alloy market. The price is expected to fluctuate, with silicon iron in the range of 5500 - 6000 and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices show different trends. For example, rebar spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while steel production costs and profits changed. For example, Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output remained stable, while the output of five major steel products increased by 2.3% (815.2 tons), rebar output increased by 2.1% (188.2 tons), and hot - rolled coil output increased by 3.7% (304.5 tons) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.1% (1232.2 tons), rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% (422.0 tons), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.7% (371.0 tons) [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 11.3% (9.7 tons), the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.9% (841.0 tons), rebar apparent demand decreased by 1.1% (200.4 tons), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.2% (310.8 tons) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and basis showed different changes. For example, the cost of Kafen warehouse receipts increased by 0.8% (870.8 yuan/ton), and the 05 - contract basis of Kafen increased by 3.8% (69.8 yuan/ton) [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 6.0% (2756.4 tons), the global shipment volume decreased by 12.6% (3213.7 tons), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% (11054.0 tons) [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4% (227.4 tons), the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.2% (325.2 tons), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3% (15970.89 tons), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.0% (8946.5 tons), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% (20.0 days) [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - Coking coal and coke prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1511 yuan/ton), and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged (1230 yuan/ton) [6] Supply and Demand - Coking coal supply increased slightly after the New Year, but sales were poor and inventory accumulated. Coke production decreased due to pressure on coking profits. Demand for both was affected by steel mill production [6] Inventory Changes - Coking coal and coke inventories increased at various levels, including mines, coking plants, and steel mills [6] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Prices and Spreads - Silicon iron and silicon manganese prices showed different trends. For example, the silicon iron主力 contract increased by 2.74% (5776.0 yuan/ton), and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 Guangxi spot price decreased by 0.5% (5700.0 yuan/ton) [8] Cost and Profit - The production cost and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese changed. For example, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicon iron increased by 0.3% (5815.3 yuan/ton), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia silicon iron decreased by 36.2 yuan [8] Supply - The output of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history [8] Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese was supported by the increase in pig iron output. For example, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44% (227.4 tons) [8] Inventory Changes - The inventories of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained high, and the inflection point had not appeared [8]