Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has significantly declined, but there is support when the price approaches the downstream's psychological level. The continuous high export of domestic electrolytic copper has made the domestic inventory accumulation rate not obvious. In the future, attention should be paid to the domestic risk preference and the Fed's actions, as well as changes in the New York spread and non - US high premiums [1]. - For aluminum, the domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are showing signs of weakness, and the basis is at a multi - year low. However, the low inventory and strong expectations can support the current high price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but the policy and fundamentals are in a more intense game due to Indonesia's nickel quota plan [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, but the news of Indonesia's nickel quota reduction has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead price at home and abroad will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [8][9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and there is a risk of marginal over - supply in the long - term. The fundamentals are showing signs of marginal weakening, and it can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [12]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, it will mainly oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is less than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has provided support for the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [20]. Group 3: Summary of Each Metal Copper - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 85, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 860, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,989 [1]. - In the second half of this week, the domestic market was closed for holidays, and the overseas copper price slightly corrected. The downstream's willingness to receive goods has declined significantly due to high prices [1]. Aluminum - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 600, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,500 [1]. - In November, the import of primary aluminum decreased significantly, and the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products increased. The domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected [1]. Zinc - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 370, the spot import profit decreased by 145.98, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 75 [2]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a shock this week, which alleviated the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic zinc ore is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 5,100, the spot import return decreased by 853.03, and the LME inventory increased by 192 [3]. - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory accumulation slowed down in China and increased slightly in the LME [4]. Stainless Steel - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - The steel mill's production is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support the price [7]. Lead - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 30, the spot import return decreased by 196.43, and the LME inventory decreased by 10,925 [8]. - The lead price rose with the macro - environment this week. The supply and demand are in a state of mismatch, but the recovery of recycled lead production has alleviated the contradiction [9]. Tin - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot import return decreased by 8,480.77, the LME C - 3M decreased by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 5 [12]. - The tin price fluctuated and declined this week. The supply may be adjusted greatly in the short - term, and there is a risk of marginal over - supply in the long - term [12]. Industrial Silicon - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 170, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 170, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [15]. - A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production this week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance, and the price will fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 8,000, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 7,250, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2,860 [20]. - The downstream positive electrode production is less than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has supported the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [20].
永安期货有色早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:53