建信期货钢材日评-20260107

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: January 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - Futures Contracts on January 6: RB2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton with a -0.06% change, HC2605 at 3263 yuan/ton with a 0.18% change, and SS2602 at 13395 yuan/ton with a 1.82% change. Their trading volumes were 841,618, 439,684, and 137,101 hands respectively, and the capital inflows/outflows were 0.39 billion, -0.33 billion, and -0.68 billion yuan respectively [5] - Spot Market on January 6: Most prices in the main rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. Rebar prices in some markets were stable, while others dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Tianjin dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and in other markets, they were stable or dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] - Technical Indicators: The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract continued to decline with a blunted J-value. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract showed a divergent trend. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive days, approaching a death cross. The daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract had a death cross the previous day with a slightly enlarged green bar [8] Group 3: Market Outlook - News Impact: Geopolitical turmoil led to a significant increase in the prices of precious metals and some non-ferrous metals. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal futures in the black metal sector became hedging chips due to their oversupply situation. However, smart money has started to lay out long-term positions at low prices [9][10] - Fundamentals: The production of the five major steel products stopped falling and rebounded, and demand also slightly increased. Due to the weekly supply being less than demand, social inventories continued to decline, reaching a new low since late January last year. The iron ore price reached a new high since late February last year and then declined, while the 4th round of spot coke price cuts was implemented. The steel cost remained relatively stable [10] - Overall Outlook: News factors may cause the steel price to be weak in the near term but still have recovery potential. From a fundamental perspective, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will be weak first and then strong, and a continuously bearish view is not advisable [10] Group 4: Industry News - Power Generation: As of December 31, 2025, Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power Co., Ltd. completed a cumulative power generation of 46.142 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.68%. In December 2025, Changyuan Electric Power completed a power generation of 2.38 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 40.54% [11] - Mineral Resources: On the evening of January 5, Yongtai Energy announced that the "aluminum under coal" mineral resource reserves of its subsidiary Shanxi Qinyuan Kangwei Sendaoyuan Coal Industry Co., Ltd. were officially approved by the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources [11] - Policy: The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued policies to promote the economic development in the first quarter of 2026, including promoting the construction of energy infrastructure and aiming to complete an investment of 24 billion yuan in full-scale energy infrastructure physical volume in Q1 2026 [11] - Port and Shipping Data: As of December 31, Ganqimaodu Port completed a total import and export freight volume of 43.0585 million tons. In December 2025, Russia's seaborne coal exports were 12.3557 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 17.57%. In November 2025, Indonesia's coal exports were 49.3632 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [11][12] - Antitrust Investigation: India's antitrust investigation found that 25 companies, including Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Steel Authority of India, colluded on steel prices [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data charts on steel production, inventory,开工 rates, iron water production, and consumption, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]