集运早报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For contract 02, it follows the spot market, and the peak may have occurred in week 4. The subsequent price - cut rhythm is hard to judge, and the risk - reward ratio is poor at the current level, so entry is not recommended [3]. - For contract 04, a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested. Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and can't have an independent market in the short term. Based on the long - term logic of expected resumption of shipping and the off - season, a short - selling strategy on rallies is also recommended for contract 10, although it has the lowest price and is most likely to be pushed up by funds when there are geopolitical reversal news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2602 closed at 1779.1, down 5.00%; EC2604 at 1182.0, down 3.42%; EC2606 at 1422.9, up 0.42%; EC2608 at 1533.0, down 0.01%; EC2610 at 1112.0, up 0.61% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: EC2602 had a trading volume of 43604 and open interest of 21811, a decrease of 3185; EC2604 had a volume of 22083 and open interest of 26339, an increase of 2409; etc. [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: For EC2502 - 2604, the spread was 597.1, a decrease of 51.8 day - on - day and 37.8 week - on - week; for EC2504 - 2606, it was - 240.9, a decrease of 47.7 day - on - day and 31.1 week - on - week [2]. Spot Market Information - Spot Indexes: The spot (European Line) index was 3387.69 on 2025/1/6, down 3.59% from the previous period; the SCFI was 1690 dollars/TEU on 2025/12/26, up 10.24% [2]. - European Line Spot Quotes: In week 2, MSK opened at 2500 dollars, with a freight rate center of 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures. MSK opened at 2600 dollars in week 3 and 2700 dollars in week 4. CMA planned to raise the price to 3800 dollars in the second half of January but reduced the rate from 3293 to 2893 dollars between January 10 - 15. MSK reduced the Shanghai - Bremen/Gdansk freight from 2700 to 2400 dollars in week 4. HMM and YML announced a rate of 2800 dollars in the second half of January, and MSC also quoted 2800 dollars [4]. Related News On 1/7, Hamas was reshaping its rule in the Gaza ruins, challenging Trump's peace plan. Despite being besieged, Hamas was trying to restore pre - war governance, and it was in the process of reorganizing its armed forces and selecting new political leaders [5].