建信期货工业硅日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely and moved upward. The SI2605 contract price was 8980 yuan/ton, with a 1.07% increase. The spot price remained stable. The industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger - performing varieties, with no policy - driven imagination space. The spot market transactions were dull in January, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low, with an expected output of about 350,000 tons in January. After the second quarter, it will face the pressure of increased production during the wet season. The demand side lacks increments. The overall spot price is stable and has not opened up an upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price showed a wide - range volatile upward trend. The SI2605 contract price was 8980 yuan/ton, up 1.07%, with a trading volume of 477,386 lots, an open interest of 244,734 lots, a net increase of 10,123 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 4,578 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 6,857 lots. The spot prices in different regions remained stable, such as 9300 yuan/ton for Sichuan 553, 8900 yuan/ton for Yunnan 553, 9900 yuan/ton for Sichuan 421, 9550 yuan/ton for Xinjiang 421, and 9550 yuan/ton for Inner Mongolia 421 [4]. 3.2 Market News - On January 7th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,799 lots, an increase of 112 lots from the previous trading day. In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08%. The weekly output was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [6]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Recently, the commodity index rebounded strongly, and the risk appetite of long - position funds increased sharply. However, the industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger - performing varieties, with no policy - driven imagination space. The spot market transactions were dull in January, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low, with an expected output of about 350,000 tons in January. After the second quarter, it will face the pressure of increased production during the wet season. The demand side lacks increments. The organic silicon monomer operating rate in December was 72.85%, and the concentrated production cuts were not significantly realized, with the latest weekly operating rate maintained at 69.61%. The polysilicon output in December was 116,900 tons, and in the current situation, polysilicon can only see production cuts, not increments. Market sentiment has driven short - term upward price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not opened up an upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan [5].