Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given documents. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products across different sectors, including financial derivatives, metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, offering trading strategies and future outlooks based on these analyses. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Nickel: Influenced by supply contraction expectations in Indonesia and geopolitical risks, the nickel market maintains a strong trend. It may experience high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][41]. - LLDPE: Upstream manufacturers keep prices firm. Rumors of supply contraction and production shifts may strengthen the upward price trend in the short term, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance [3][109]. - Iron Ore: Driven by news, the price is expected to transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high - level oscillations. Short - term strategies suggest short - term long positions, with a reference range of 770 - 840 yuan [3][56]. - Meal: The global soybean market is in a loose pattern, but the domestic market may show a short - term upward trend due to future tightness expectations [4][77]. - Silver: Driven by long - position capital, the price shows a strong trend, but there are risks of price corrections. It is recommended to hold light long positions above $70 [5][15]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market has a post - holiday rally. It is recommended to hold bullish spread portfolios and construct covered call portfolios. The IC contract shows stronger performance [7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Affected by the stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns, the market may experience weak oscillations. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side strategies and consider steepening the yield curve in the medium term [10][12]. Precious Metals - Gold: Although the U.S. economic data shows some improvement, the long - term upward potential of gold remains. It is recommended to hold long positions above $4,300 [13][15]. - Silver: Long - position capital drives the price, but there are risks of price corrections. It is recommended to hold light long positions above $70 [5][15]. - Platinum and Palladium: They are expected to show a long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) The SCFIS European line index shows a mixed trend. The futures market is expected to experience short - term oscillations [17]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price may be overestimated. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support level of 99,000 - 100,000 yuan [17][21]. - Alumina: The futures price is driven by market sentiment, but the spot price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [21][23]. - Aluminum: Supported by macro and policy factors, but facing supply - demand and inventory pressures, it is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 yuan [24][26]. - Zinc: Supported by tight domestic zinc ore supply and low inventory, but facing pressure from future imported ore supply. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a support level of 23,300 - 23,400 yuan [29][32]. - Tin: Affected by geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, the price is expected to show a strong oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [33][38]. - Nickel: Influenced by supply contraction expectations in Indonesia and geopolitical risks, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][41]. - Stainless Steel: Driven by raw material price increases, it is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 yuan [42][45]. - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by news, policies, and supply - demand factors, the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and consider converting long positions to call options [45][48]. - Polysilicon: In a situation of weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - Industrial Silicon: Affected by organic silicon production cuts, it is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to production cuts [52][53]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Driven by cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate upward in a range. The reference range for rebar is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3,150 - 3,350 yuan [53][54]. - Iron Ore: Driven by news, it is expected to transition from a supply - demand surplus to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high - level oscillations. Short - term strategies suggest short - term long positions, with a reference range of 770 - 840 yuan [3][56]. - Coking Coal: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the spot price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and consider arbitrage strategies [58][62]. - Coke: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the spot market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider arbitrage strategies [63][67]. - Ferrosilicon: Driven by macro news, the price is expected to oscillate upward in a range, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,300 yuan [68][70]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro news and South African manganese ore supply, the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to adopt range - trading strategies, with a reference range of 5,800 - 6,400 yuan [71][73]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The global soybean market is in a loose pattern, but the domestic market may show a short - term upward trend due to future tightness expectations [4][77]. - Live Hogs: After the holiday, demand declines. The supply in January is expected to be relatively loose, and the price may face pressure [78][79]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, the price increase is limited by selling pressure and policies [81][82]. - Sugar: Supported by holiday demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [83][85]. - Cotton: The U.S. cotton market is expected to oscillate, and the domestic cotton market may show a bullish trend in the short term, but there is a risk of price correction [85]. - Eggs: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level as the holiday approaches [88]. - Fats and Oils: Affected by China's monetary policy, the market shows a strong rebound. Different types of oils have different outlooks [90][92]. - Red Dates: Driven by market sentiment, the futures price is strong, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [93][94]. - Apples: The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality apples and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [95]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to adopt short - term range - trading and medium - term long - buying strategies [96][97]. - PTA: Driven by raw materials, the supply - demand situation in January is expected to weaken. It is recommended to adopt short - term range - trading and medium - term long - buying strategies [98][99]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price. It is recommended to adopt the same strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies [100]. - Bottle Chips: The supply and demand are expected to decline in January, and it is expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to adopt the same strategy as PTA and expect the processing margin to oscillate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [101][103]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to face pressure in January. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and adopt reverse - arbitrage strategies [104][105]. - Pure Benzene: The supply is stable, and the demand shows a slight improvement, but the price is under pressure from high inventory. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan [106]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after January. It is recommended to short - sell above 6,800 yuan and reduce the processing margin on rallies [107][108]. - LLDPE: Upstream manufacturers keep prices firm. Supply contraction expectations and market sentiment drive the price upward. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance [109]. - PP: The supply - demand is weak, and the price shows a slight increase. Attention should be paid to PDH profit expansion [110]. - Methanol: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low levels in the range of 2,100 - 2,350 yuan [111]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [111][112]. - PVC: Driven by the black market, the price shows an upward trend, but the supply - demand fundamentals are not improved. It is not recommended to chase the price higher [113][114]. - Urea: Driven by multiple factors, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term. Attention should be paid to device restart and downstream demand [115][116]. - Soda Ash: The futures price shows a strong trend, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [117][119]. - Glass: Driven by the macro - environment, the price shows a strong trend, but the demand may decline in January. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion [117][120]. - Natural Rubber: Driven by market sentiment and news, the price shows a strong oscillation, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122]. - Synthetic Rubber: The fundamental support is limited, but the market sentiment drives the price upward. It is not recommended to short - sell in the short term [122][125].
广发早知道：汇总版-20260108
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-08 01:38