芳烃橡胶早报-20260108

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For PTA, the supply side shows that some devices have restarted and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. The polyester load has recovered, the inventory has slightly decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has improved. However, after the price of PX has strengthened significantly, on one hand, the profit of downstream filaments has declined significantly, and the possibility of accelerated production cuts has increased. On the other hand, the expansion of PXN has led to the recovery of domestic and overseas loads. Although the long - term pattern has not been completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has increased, and the short - term upward space may be limited, waiting for downstream price passing [1]. - For MEG, the domestic oil - based production has increased its load, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Overseas maintenance has continued to increase, the arrival at the port is stable, the port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of the week, and the basis has remained weak. The coal - based production efficiency has fluctuated at a low level. In the future, the domestic supply will increase steadily, overseas maintenance will increase month - on - month, the overall inventory accumulation will continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the operation of some devices in Zhejiang has restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the product inventory has accumulated, with the efficiency improving month - on - month. Although the domestic demand side of staple fiber is gradually entering the off - season, the spot efficiency has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise of raw materials, and the processing fee on the futures market has remained low. Considering that the absolute inventory is not high, the space for further weakening is limited, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has been stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of related products have shown certain fluctuations, but no clear overall trend conclusion is given in the report [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Supply side: Some devices in the PTA section have restarted, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. For example, Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device has restarted, and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device has increased its load [1]. - Demand side: The polyester load has recovered, and the inventory has slightly decreased [1]. - Price and cost: The basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has improved. The domestic operating rate of PX has increased, and overseas has also slightly increased the load. The PXN has shrunk month - on - month, and the disproportionation efficiency and isomerization efficiency have weakened month - on - month. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia has continued to shrink [1]. MEG - Supply side: The domestic oil - based production has increased its load, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Overseas maintenance has continued to increase, and the arrival at the port is stable. For example, Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton device has restarted, and Henan Coal Industry's 200,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [1]. - Inventory: The port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of the week, and the basis has remained weak [1]. - Profit: The coal - based production efficiency has fluctuated at a low level [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Supply side: The operation of some devices in Zhejiang has restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month [1]. - Demand side: The start - up of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the product inventory has accumulated, with the efficiency improving month - on - month [1]. - Profit: Although the domestic demand side of staple fiber is gradually entering the off - season, the spot efficiency has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise of raw materials, and the processing fee on the futures market has remained low [1]. Natural Rubber - Price: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, etc., have shown certain fluctuations. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber has increased by 35 in the weekly change [1]. - Inventory: The national explicit inventory has remained stable [1]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - Price: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS have fluctuated. For example, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) has changed from 5345 on December 30, 2025, to 5305 on January 7, 2026 [1]. - Profit: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have also shown corresponding changes [1].