建信期货生猪日报-20260108

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has increased, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens has slightly risen. In January, the monthly slaughter of breeding enterprises may continue to increase slightly, and the current slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable. On the demand side, second - round fattening has increased, and there is a rolling restocking demand. Post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, and there is still room for cured meat and sausage demand. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises are slowly increasing after the festival. Overall, on the spot market, post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, the overall volume is still high, supply is relatively loose, and the spot price fluctuates. In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, and the pressure of second - round fattening is still higher than the same period last year, which continues to put pressure on the market, but the previous epidemic in the north has continued to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread and remains sporadically seasonal. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 7th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest price was 11,925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,740 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,785 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,459 lots to 363,111 lots. [8] - Spot Market: On the 7th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.55 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] - Supply - demand Analysis: As mentioned in the core view, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is slowly recovering. On January 7, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,100 heads, an increase of 1,300 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 9,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,000 heads month - on - month. [9] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information, in the week of January 4, the overall slaughter proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. Due to the seasonal sporadic occurrence of the epidemic, the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period, and currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread. [10][11] 3. Data Overview - 15kg Piglet Price: In the week of January 4, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head from the previous week. [18] - Breeding Profit: As of January 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week. [18] - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of January 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66kg, a decrease of 1.04kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%). [18]