建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260108

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefin has increased month - on - month due to the decline in maintenance losses during the new capacity window period, while the demand side is restricted by the seasonal off - season and shows obvious weakness. At the beginning of the year, the capital sentiment was high, but the overseas geopolitical conflict could not change the pattern of crude oil surplus. The supply of polyolefin has recovered and the demand has entered the inventory digestion cycle in the off - season, so the upside space is limited [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2605 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 6,642 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (1.84%), with a trading volume of 566,000 lots and a decrease of 2,207 lots in positions to 505,678 lots. The PP2605 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,486 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, a gain of 1.60%, with a decrease of 1,191 lots in positions to 520,400 lots [5][6] 3.2 Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons or 7.58% from the previous working day, compared with 575,000 tons in the same period last year. - Most PE market prices rose. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average. With the increase of some ex - factory prices, traders raised their prices accordingly, and downstream buyers made cautious purchases. The LLDPE prices in the North China, East China, and South China regions were in the ranges of 6,430 - 6,600 yuan/ton, 6,450 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and 6,600 - 6,850 yuan/ton respectively. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The overall shipment of production enterprises was smooth, the propylene offers were adjusted steadily, and there were still cases of premium in the actual order auctions of some enterprises. The downstream factories maintained their purchasing enthusiasm, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. - The PP market showed an obvious upward trend, and the price center of some markets increased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. The offers of traders followed the increase significantly, and the market center increased. The downstream factories made cautious purchases and were still resistant to high - priced goods, resulting in poor market transactions. The regional prices were as follows: the mainstream prices of drawn PP in the North China, East China, and South China regions were 6,130 - 6,250 yuan/ton, 6,230 - 6,400 yuan/ton, and 6,150 - 6,450 yuan/ton respectively [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, and the data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]