大越期货玻璃早报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, and it is expected to move in a sideways pattern in the short term. The glass supply is at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising. It is expected that glass will mainly move in a low - level, sideways, and weakly downward pattern [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1148 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.13%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - panel glass rose from 904 yuan/ton to 924 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.21%. The main basis changed from - 188 yuan/ton to - 224 yuan/ton, a change of 19.15% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - panel in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 924 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit is low, and there is an expectation of further cold - repair in the industry [4]. Fundamentals - Supply Side - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 154,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [22][24]. Fundamentals - Demand Side - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [28][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 56.866 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.00% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have fluctuated. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Low glass production profit leads to an expectation of further cold - repair in the industry [4]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the deep - processing industry has poor capital recovery, so traders and processors are cautious and mainly consume raw glass inventories [4].