大越期货纯碱早报-20260108

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show high production at alkali plants, an expected ample supply, a continued downward trend in the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the inventory at soda ash plants is at a historically high level. The basis indicates that the futures are at a premium to the spot. Although the cost side provides some support, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1190 yuan/ton to 1271 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.81%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei increased from 1135 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.37%. The main basis changed from - 55 yuan/ton to - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.45% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1230 yuan/ton, up 8.37% from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly output of soda ash is 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity additions in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [23]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.45 tons, and the operating rate is 73.89% [29]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national factories is 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and it is at a historically high level in the same period [35]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, and the supply - demand gap, as well as their growth rates [36]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there were still large production plans in 2025. The production in the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].