大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260108

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: January 8, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall neutral fundamental situation, oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weak downstream demand [4]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate today, with an overall neutral fundamental situation, oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The impact of the US action in Venezuela on domestic crude oil and chemical products is expected to be limited. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6460 (+40), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -182, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 tons (-9.3), showing a neutral situation [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weak downstream demand [4]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The impact of the US action in Venezuela on domestic crude oil and chemical products is expected to be limited. The PDH maintenance rate has begun to increase. The demand for plastic weaving is mainly based on rigid demand, and the overall demand for pipes has declined. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (+20), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -136, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.7%, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 tons (-4.3), showing a neutral situation [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound today, with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16].