大越期货白糖早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO reduces its surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 million tons, and StoneX estimates a 370 - million - ton surplus [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90 thousand tons, and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108.2 thousand tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. - The sugar main contract 05 is expected to rebound in the short - term with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5300 [4]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish: Possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish: Increase in global sugar production, new - season global supply surplus, opening of the import profit window due to falling foreign sugar prices, and increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus, ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, and Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar (down 90 thousand tons year - on - year), and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons (down 108.2 thousand tons year - on - year) [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]