大越期货尿素早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall demand is not strong, and the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The UR2605 contract basis and the net short position of the main contract indicate a bearish trend, while the position of the closing price relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is inventory de - stocking, and the negative factor is domestic oversupply. The main influencing factors are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand, with overall inactive procurement. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. There is a large price difference between domestic and international export markets, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The domestic urea market is overall oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1750 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 40, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.3%, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (-5.5), which is neutral [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short - selling position is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The futures price of the main urea contract fluctuates and rebounds. The industrial demand is mainly on - demand, and the inventory is being de - stocked. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Quotes | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1750 (+10), Shandong spot is 1750 (+10), Henan spot is 1750 (0), and FOB China is 2797 [6]. | | Futures | For the 05 contract, the price is 1790 (+12); the basis is - 40 (-2); UR01 is 1698 (+4), UR05 is 1790 (+12), and UR09 is 1769 (+24) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 12619 (0), the UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 (-5.5), the UR factory inventory is 101.9 (0), and the UR port inventory is 17.2 (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]