Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - Soybean Oil: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - Jujube: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - Corn: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - Apple: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - Cotton: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - Egg: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - Pig: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - Meal: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - Futures and Spot Prices: - Palm Oil: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - Soybean Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - Jujube: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - Sugar: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - Apple: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - Cotton: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - Egg: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - Pig: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - Meal: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - Spreads: - Three - oil Inter - period Spread: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - Palm Oil Inter - period Spread: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - Soybean - Palm Oil Spread: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - Jujube 5 - 7 Spread: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - Jujube 5 - 9 Spread: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - Corn 3 - 7 Spread: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - Sugar 5 - 9 Spread: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - Apple 5 - 10 Spread: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - Cotton 5 - 9 Spread: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - Egg 3 - 4 Spread: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - Pig 3 - 5 Spread: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - Inventory: - Palm Oil: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - Soybean Oil: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - Jujube: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - Corn: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - Sugar: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - Apple: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - Cotton: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - Meal: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - Supply - demand: - Sugar: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - Cotton: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - Pig: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].
《农产品》日报-20260108
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-08 02:10