《能源化工》日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The methanol futures dropped rapidly in the morning due to the news of Sierbang's shutdown in February and stabilized in the afternoon. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short - term driven by cost support and inventory reduction expectations. The port inventory may enter a destocking cycle in the first quarter [1]. LLDPE and PP - Upstream producers continue to hold prices firm, and spot prices have followed the futures up. The market has supply contraction expectations due to rumors. The short - term price of LLDPE and PP is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, there is an inventory accumulation risk around the Spring Festival, and its rebound space is limited [6]. LPG - No specific view is given in the provided content about the future trend of LPG, only price, inventory and other data are presented [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and the upward space of the price is limited. For glass, although the spot price has risen slightly driven by the futures, the upward space of the market is also restricted, and the market may return to a weak - reality logic [11]. Natural Rubber - The cost of rubber is supported by the rising raw material prices in Thailand, but the downstream's weak buying power restricts the upward movement of rubber prices. Future attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable and weak in the short - term due to oversupply. The PVC market is mainly driven by emotional fluctuations, and there is a risk of a fall after reaching a high level [14]. Urea - The short - term urea price is expected to be strong and volatile, affected by the Indian tender and macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of production devices and downstream demand [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX and PTA, the supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate. For MEG, there is a large inventory accumulation expectation in the near - term. Short - fiber's absolute price has weak driving force, and bottle - chip will follow the cost end [16]. Crude Oil - The international oil price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the long - term supply surplus pressure and large inventory accumulation of refined oil products [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2605 closed at 2267, down 1.13% from the previous day; MA2609 closed at 2247, up 0.31%. The MA59 spread decreased by 62.26%. The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the downstream MTO device's operating rate decreased [1]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory was 44.768, up 5.94%; the port inventory was 153.7 tons, up 4.05%; the social inventory was 198.5, up 4.47% [1]. - Operating Rate: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 77.67, down 0.41%, and the downstream MTO device's operating rate was 79.35, down 7.37% [1]. LLDPE and PP - Price and Spread: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all increased. The L15 spread and PP15 spread also changed [4]. - Inventory: PE social inventory increased by 2.04%, PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.99%, and trade - related inventory decreased [4]. - Operating Rate: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.72%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.63%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 0.17%, and the powder operating rate increased by 2.04% [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. changed. The price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.6% [6]. - Styrene - Related Price and Spread: The price of styrene in East China increased slightly, and the EB cash - flow also changed [6]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the styrene inventory decreased by 4.7%. The operating rate of some products changed [6]. LPG - Price and Spread: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, etc. changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [8]. - Inventory: The LPG refinery storage ratio was 24.3, up 0.91%, and the port inventory was 214 tons, down 8.41% [8]. - Operating Rate: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%, and the downstream PDH operating rate was 75.1, down 1.65% [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions and futures contracts changed, and the basis also changed [11]. - Supply and Inventory: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.07%, and the inventory increased. The glass daily melting volume decreased [11]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were presented [11]. Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis decreased by 7.50% [12]. - Production and Operating Rate: The production of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rate of domestic tires changed [12]. - Inventory Change: The bonded - area inventory increased by 4.48%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory in the SHFE remained almost unchanged [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [14]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased. The downstream operating rates of both decreased [14]. - Inventory: The caustic soda inventory in some regions changed, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.8% [14]. Urea - Futures Price and Spread: The closing prices of urea futures contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [15]. - Upstream and Spot Price: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [15]. - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production of urea remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Price: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed [16]. - Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow: The prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [16]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The MEG port inventory decreased by 0.7%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed [16]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [17]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between contracts changed [17]. - Product Spread: The spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [17].