《有色》日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Affected by multiple factors such as sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, tin prices rose sharply. It is expected that short - term prices will be mainly driven by macro factors and remain strongly volatile [2]. Nickel Industry - Recently, the expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment. The actual implementation remains to be observed, but short - term quota uncertainties and strong capital sentiment still provide some support. The nickel price may fluctuate widely at high levels, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost support from the ore and nickel - iron sectors has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The stainless - steel market is in a supply - demand game. After the release of the positive sentiment from the nickel - ore news, the further upward drive may be limited. In the short term, the price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [7]. Lithium Industry - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain level of resilience. However, in the off - season, the power market orders decline, and the destocking speed slows down. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract possibly testing the 150,000 resistance level and then adjusting downward [11]. Copper Industry - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price has over - priced the long - term benefits and is overvalued to some extent. However, in a high - risk - appetite market environment, the short - term price may still remain strong, with the main contract focusing on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [13]. Zinc Industry - Supported by the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ores, the short - term zinc price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro environment, with the main contract focusing on the 23,300 - 23,400 support level [17]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the market surplus pressure is still severe, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. For aluminum, strong macro and policy expectations provide a bottom support, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will suppress the upward space. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to remain low and volatile, with a main fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price will remain high and volatile. In January, under the weak - demand background, there is a pressure to further reduce production to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production cuts and price - adjustment acceptance [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw - material supply, import - window changes, and downstream pre - Spring Festival stocking [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 4.37% and 4.36% respectively, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 116.59% [2]. - Fundamentals: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, and the export of refined tin from Indonesia increased by 186.54%. In December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly by 0.06% [2]. - Inventory: The SHEF inventory decreased by 6.38%, and the social inventory decreased by 9.15% [2]. Nickel Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.67% and 4.71% respectively, and the futures import loss increased significantly by 4,880.90% [4]. - Cost: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from external - sourced materials increased, while the cost of integrated high - matte nickel production decreased by 3.60% [4]. - Supply and Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 4.89% and 3.76% respectively, and the basis between futures and spot prices increased by 213.33% [7]. - Raw - Material Prices: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.91%, and the price of Inner Mongolia high - carbon ferrochrome increased by 1.23% [7]. - Fundamentals: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50%, and the net export volume increased by 25.31%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.93% [7]. Lithium Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 2.96% to 7.93% [11]. - Fundamentals: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand decreased by 2.50%, and the total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Copper Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper products decreased slightly, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased significantly [13]. - Fundamentals: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90%. The social inventory and SHFE inventory increased [13]. Zinc Industry - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.16%, and the import loss increased [17]. - Fundamentals: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24%, and in November, the export volume increased by 402.59%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 2.59% [17]. Aluminum Industry - Price and Basis: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.96%, and the price of alumina in various regions decreased slightly [19]. - Fundamentals: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08%, and the production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.97% and 3.56% respectively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.05% [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of various industrial - silicon products remained stable, and the basis decreased [20]. - Fundamentals: The national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15%, and the production in Xinjiang increased by 6.46%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The export volume increased by 21.78% [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased slightly by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 1.79% [22]. - Fundamentals: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased and increased respectively, and the export volume increased significantly [22]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.99%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 6.92% [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - Price and Basis: The prices of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by about 0.85%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference increased [23]. - Fundamentals: In November, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots increased slightly by 0.46%. The开工 rates of various types of aluminum - alloy enterprises decreased [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 4.40% [23].