大越期货沪铜早报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high with significant high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances and mine - end events, and attention should be paid to position control [3] - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply, while natural disasters are potential risks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and an increase in December manufacturing PMI to the expansion range are positive factors [3] - Basis: The spot price is 103,595 with a basis of 185, showing a premium over futures, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 8, copper inventory decreased by 2,850 to 143,225 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons last week, which is neutral [3] - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is positive [3] - Main positions: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is positive [3] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price hit a new high with significant high - level fluctuations, so position control is necessary [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive factors: Global policy easing, mine - end tightness, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase with a production cut event at a Freeport Indonesia mine [4][5] - Negative factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]