原油成品油早报-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the crude oil market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties due to the US - Venezuela event. The Venezuelan sea area's imports and exports will be affected by the blockade, and Iran has issued a strong condemnation with the escalation of the Israel - Iran situation. Supply may decline in the short - term if Venezuela enters a political transition, but the low absolute value of its output won't change the global surplus pattern in Q1. The price may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums but has limited upside elasticity. [6] - In the long - term, with political stability, new licenses, stable diluent logistics, and the expansion of US oil companies' operations, Venezuela's oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. It may become the largest supply increase uncertainty in 2026 - 2027. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, WTI decreased by 1.14, BRENT by 0.74, and DUBAI by 0.81. Other related prices also showed corresponding changes. For example, SC decreased by 11.90, and domestic gasoline decreased by 40.00. [3] b. Daily News - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on January 7 that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales, aiming to stabilize and increase its production. The Trump administration also considers establishing a compensation mechanism for US oil companies investing in Venezuela. [3] - US Attorney General Bondi said on January 8 that the US executed a seizure order on the "BELLA 1" oil tanker. The department is monitoring other vessels for similar actions. [4] - According to a source close to the White House, Venezuelan oil sales will continue indefinitely, and US sanctions on Venezuela will be reduced. Venezuela has a large proven oil reserve but a current daily output of about 800,000 barrels. [4] c. Inventory - In the week of January 2, US crude exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.91% decline. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. [5] - The average four - week supply of US crude products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a 1.86% decrease from the previous year. [5] d. Weekly Viewpoints - Before the holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated. On January 2, foreign - market crude oil closed lower. The US - Venezuela event escalated over the weekend, bringing geopolitical uncertainties to the market. [5][6] - In the short - term, Venezuelan production may decline, but it won't change the global surplus pattern. In the long - term, production may increase, but the investment attitude of the industry is cautious. [6]