广发期货日评-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products, including plastics, iron ore, soymeal, silver, stock indices, treasury bonds, precious metals, shipping, steel, and more [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - The post - holiday opening of the stock index futures showed a significant increase in volume, with strong momentum to break through previous highs and a concentrated main - line structure, resulting in differentiated performance among stock indices. It is recommended to hold bull - spread portfolios, and build covered call portfolios on dips while controlling risks and avoiding heavy single - sided positions. The IC component is more in line with the main - line structure and performs stronger [3]. Treasury Bonds - The current abundant liquidity supports the bond market, while concerns about supply and the strengthening of the equity market restrain the performance of long - term bonds. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility. The stabilization or recovery of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. For the single - sided strategy, it is advisable to wait and see, and the curve strategy still tends to steepen in the medium term [3]. Precious Metals - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold long positions should be held above $4,300. Attention should be paid to the potential callback risk caused by the rebalancing of the global commodity index. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a light long - position above $70. For platinum and palladium, it is advisable to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping - The container shipping futures (EC2602) are expected to decline in the short - term, with a downward trend in the market [3]. Steel - The rise in raw material prices drives up steel prices. For May rebar, pay attention to the resistance at 3,200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, pay attention to 3,350 yuan. Iron ore is boosted by macro news and faces a supply off - season, with a short - term long - position strategy in the range of 770 - 840 [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, hold long positions cautiously with light positions, and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000. For aluminum, beware of short - term callback risks, and wait for a pullback to build long positions. For zinc, hold long positions and continue the inter - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, it shows a strong - side oscillation. For nickel, reduce long positions on rallies, and for stainless steel, it shows a strong - side oscillation [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX and PTA, they are in a high - level oscillation before the holiday, with a short - term range of 7,000 - 7,500 and 5,000 - 5,200 respectively, and a medium - term low - buying strategy. For short - fiber, follow the raw material trend and reduce the processing fee on rallies. For ethanol, sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct a reverse arbitrage between May and September contracts [3]. Agricultural Products - Soymeal and rapeseed meal show a strong - side oscillation. For livestock products like pigs, pay attention to the post - holiday demand decline and the slaughter rhythm. For grains like corn, the spot price is stable and the market shows an upward trend. For oils and fats, they are boosted by the domestic loose monetary policy and show a range - bound oscillation [3].