永安期货有色早报-20260108

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper price in overseas markets slightly corrected in the second half of the week due to the holiday in the domestic market. The willingness of domestic downstream buyers to accept high prices has significantly decreased. Attention should be paid to the support when the price approaches the psychological price of downstream buyers. The continuous high export of domestic electrolytic copper in the past three months has led to an unobvious inventory accumulation rate in China. In the future, macro-level factors such as the change of domestic risk appetite and the Fed's actions, as well as industrial-level factors such as the contraction of the New York spread and the maintenance of high premiums in non-US regions, should be monitored [1]. - The import volume of primary aluminum has declined significantly, while the exports of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi-finished products have all increased. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy is withdrawn in 2026, but the month-on-month recovery of photovoltaic installation volume is better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased. Although there are signs of weakening in both domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption and the basis is at a multi-year low, the high price can still be supported by strong expectations due to the low inventory level [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3M contango has been fluctuating, which eases the overseas supply - demand contradiction. On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC has accelerated its decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. As the winter storage approaches, domestic smelters are competing for zinc concentrate inventory. Currently, the profit is acceptable, but attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the downstream orders at the end of the year are weak; overseas, the demand in Europe is average, and the import of zinc ingots in the United States has recently increased. As the export window gradually opens, the domestic social inventory has declined in an oscillatory manner, and the domestic spot is tight. Affected by the decline in zinc price, the premium has remained high. There is a trend of Guangdong's zinc supply flowing to East China. The low inventory in the overseas LME has increased, and the premium has turned into a contango. In terms of strategy, the domestic fundamental situation of zinc is poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so it is difficult for the price center to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for the domestic - overseas market, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity; for the calendar spread, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [2]. - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel has declined slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is strong. On the inventory side, the inventory accumulation in China has slowed down this week, and the LME has slightly increased its inventory. The short - term fundamental situation is weak. According to the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization), the quota plan for next year is 250 million tons (a 34% decrease compared to 2025). Although there may be a difference between the actual quota and the association's statement, it is difficult to disprove it in the short term. From the perspective of odds, more investors are going long, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [4]. - On the supply side, steel mills maintain a high production schedule. On the demand side, the demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron has slightly stabilized, and the price of ferrochrome has remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are also maintained. The overall fundamental situation is weak. The Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support the price, and the news of the quota cut by the Indonesian Nickel Association (a non - official organization) has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - The lead price has risen following the macro - trend. On the supply side, the primary lead production is driven by profit, and the maintenance is expected to reduce production by 1 - 1.5 tons. The operation rate of concentrate mines has declined seasonally, and the concentrate supply has become tight, with no hope of a TC rebound; the secondary lead production has resumed, and the output has increased. Recyclers have shown an intention to support the price, and the maintenance within the month has affected 1.5 tons. On the demand side, the monthly battery finished product inventory has increased, and the demand is expected to weaken. Since the end of September, the lead ingot market has tightened, and the supply - demand mismatch has been serious. Currently, the resumption of secondary lead production has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, but it is difficult for battery factories to accumulate inventory due to their high operation rate, and downstream buyers' replenishment at low prices provides support. The implementation of the new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the procurement and sales are sluggish at the end of the year. The primary lead supply in November - December is expected to remain flat. This week, the resumption of secondary lead production and the maintenance of primary lead have offset each other, but the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, and the inventory is at a low level. The refined - scrap price difference has fallen back to - 50 with the increase in lead price, and the primary lead ingot spot has support. The social inventory in five regions remains at a low level of 18,400 tons, and there is still a risk of warehouse receipt contradiction. It is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - The tin price has fluctuated and declined this week. On the supply side, the domestic tin ingot output remains flat. Overseas, the output recovery in Low - Bang is slow due to the slow adjustment of pumping equipment, but the high price has stimulated the export of a large amount of inventory ore recently. If the tin price remains high, it may also accelerate the solution of the mine water accumulation problem, and the problem of imported ore has been slightly alleviated to a normal level. At the end of the year, there is an export rush. In November, the Indonesian President announced that the tin ingot export will exceed 6,000 tons in 2026. In the first quarter of next year, the temporary peace agreement between Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda has been reached, and the short - term risk disturbance has been alleviated. On the demand side, the downstream replenishment willingness is strong when the price drops, and the domestic inventory has declined; a large amount of inventory has been delivered overseas, and the LME inventory has increased significantly. In the short term, the supply side may fluctuate greatly under the stimulation of high prices; in the long term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply exceeding expectations. The fundamental situation shows signs of marginal weakening. If the macro - situation shows a systematic decline, the demand will determine the upside space. Tin can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. 2026 is a year with a large - scale recovery in the supply side. If the macro - situation is worse than expected, the downward fluctuation will also be large [12]. - A large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production this week and currently maintains 88 units. As large factories gradually enter the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon were in balance in December, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. In the long term, the current over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operation rate is low. The price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [15]. - Recently, the production scheduling of the downstream cathode segment has fallen short of expectations, and the futures price has quickly corrected. Then, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented, and the expectation of the passenger car market has slightly improved, which has provided support for the price. On the raw material side, the currently circulating supply is still tight, and lithium salt factories have limited acceptance of high - priced ore, resulting in a relatively light trading volume. On the lithium salt side, currently, upstream factories mainly focus on long - term contracts, and the spot sales are limited. The factory inventory continues to decline. On the downstream side, the current trading is mainly for the rigid needs of enterprises. After the significant correction of the futures price, the downstream trading has improved, and there are many post - point - price settlements at low prices. The overall basis quotation and trading have strengthened slightly [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory: From December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, the Shanghai copper spot price fluctuated, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,203 tons. The LME copper inventory decreased by 2,850 tons [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic downstream demand is weak due to high prices. Attention should be paid to macro and industrial factors in the future [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: The aluminum ingot price in Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong regions has increased. The domestic alumina price has decreased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weak, but the low inventory and strong expectations support the high price [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory: The zinc ingot price in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong regions has fluctuated. The LME zinc inventory has decreased by 275 tons [2]. - Market Outlook: The domestic supply will have a phased reduction at the end of the year, and the price is difficult to decline significantly. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: The price of Shanghai nickel has increased, and the LME nickel inventory has increased by 20,088 tons [3]. - Market Outlook: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, and the game between policy and fundamentals has intensified [4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: The prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel have increased [7]. - Market Outlook: The overall fundamental situation is weak, and the Indonesian policy has supported the price in the short term [7]. Lead - Price and Inventory: The lead price has risen, and the LME lead inventory has decreased by 2,925 tons [8][9]. - Market Outlook: The lead ingot spot is still in short supply, and the price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - Price and Inventory: The tin price has declined, and the LME tin inventory has decreased by 15 tons [12]. - Market Outlook: The short - term supply may fluctuate, and the long - term supply may be in marginal over - supply. The demand will determine the upside space [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: The basis of industrial silicon has changed, and the warehouse receipts have increased by 112 [15]. - Market Outlook: The supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price will fluctuate with the cost. In the long term, the price will fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: The prices of SMM electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have increased, and the warehouse receipts have increased by 2,039 [19]. - Market Outlook: The downstream demand has slightly improved, and the price has support. The upstream inventory is decreasing [19].