资讯早间报：隔夜夜盘市场走势-20260107

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - Domestic Commodity Futures: Most contracts closed higher. The lithium carbonate main contract hit the daily limit at 137,940 yuan/ton, a new high since October 2023. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals soared, with Shanghai silver up over 7%, platinum up over 6%, palladium up over 5%, and Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, international copper, and Shanghai nickel up over 4% [5]. - International Precious Metal Futures: COMEX gold futures rose 1.22% to 4,505.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.95% to 81.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - Crude Oil: The U.S. oil main contract fell 2.31% to 56.97 dollars/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.96% to 60.55 dollars/barrel [7]. - London Base Metals: All rose. LME nickel rose 8.39% to 18,430.0 dollars/ton, LME tin rose 4.79% to 44,500.0 dollars/ton, LME lead rose 2.35% to 2,071.0 dollars/ton, LME copper rose 2.02% to 13,254.5 dollars/ton, LME zinc rose 1.58% to 3,245.5 dollars/ton, and LME aluminum rose 1.56% to 3,133.5 dollars/ton [7]. 2. Important News Macro News - Venezuela: On the evening of January 5th, there were gunshots and explosions in central Caracas, including areas near the presidential palace. Air defense systems were activated, and power outages occurred in some areas [10]. - China's Auto Industry: In 2025, China's auto production and sales are expected to exceed 34 million units, reaching a new high and remaining above 30 million units for three consecutive years [10]. - China's Central Bank: The 2026 work meeting emphasized continuing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments to expand domestic demand, optimize supply, and prevent risks [10]. - Interest Rate Outlook: Milan believes that the policy is restrictive and that a rate cut of over 100 basis points this year is reasonable [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - India's Oil Imports: Reliance Industries expects no Russian crude oil arrivals in January, which may cause a significant drop in Indian imports of Russian oil to multi - year lows [11]. - Oil Price: Due to ample global supply and uncertainty in Venezuela, oil prices fell. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia for the third consecutive month [13]. - U.S. - Russia Tension: The U.S. is formulating a plan to intercept the "Bella 1" oil tanker, which may lead to a conflict with Russia [13]. - Venezuela's Oil: The Trump administration plans to meet with U.S. oil company executives to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production after removing Maduro. Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude to trade in the mid - to - high 50 - 60 dollars range for most of 2026, dropping to the middle of this range in Q2 and rising to about 60 dollars/barrel in Q4 [14]. Metal Futures - Mineral Resources: The National Natural Resources Work Conference on January 5th emphasized increasing reserves and production of strategic minerals, strengthening risk monitoring, and carrying out a new round of prospecting [17]. - Stainless Steel: An Indonesian stainless - steel mill raised its export price by 30 dollars/ton and then suspended quotes due to rising nickel prices [19]. - Polysilicon: In January 2026, polysilicon production is expected to be 104,500 tons, a 6.15% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate will be 36.71%, a 3% decline [20]. - Lithium - related Products: The price of high - quality lithium carbonate increased by 8,800 yuan, and battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 9,150 yuan. Two lithium iron phosphate companies confirmed price hikes [20][21]. Black - series Futures - Iron Ore: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.1583 million tons, a 56,100 - ton increase [23]. - Construction Steel: In December, 26 construction steel producers carried out production cuts and maintenance, 16 fewer than the previous month, affecting production by 259,210 tons, a 28.74% increase [24]. Agricultural Futures - Brazilian Soybeans: Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 reached a record 108.68 million tons, an 11.7% increase from 2024 [27]. - Domestic Soybean Processing: In December 2025, domestic soybean crushing volume was about 9.05 million tons. In January, with lower imports, it is expected to drop to 8 million tons, and bean - meal inventory is expected to fall to 900,000 tons by the end of January [27]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: From January 1 - 5, 2026, palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 34.48% month - on - month, with a 34.7% drop in yield and a 0.04% increase in oil extraction rate [27]. - Pig and Corn Prices: As of December 31, 2025, the pig - to - corn price ratio was 5.40. Compared with December 24, pig prices rose 3.94%, corn prices rose 0.88%, and the ratio rose 3.05% [27]. 3. Financial Markets Financial Sector - Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.38% to 26,710.45, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.46%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.05%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$2.879 billion, with Ping An and Alibaba leading the inflows [29]. - A - share Market: Regulators are investigating obstacles to increasing bank - wealth management investment in A - shares. In 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had 42 new listings with a total fundraising of 81.289 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 48 new listings raising 42.954 billion yuan. In December 2025, A - share new accounts increased by 9% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year [30][31]. - Legal Case: Xu Xiang and Xu Changjiang were ordered to compensate 23 investors 3.2936 million yuan for market manipulation, with Wenfeng Co. liable [31]. - QDII Funds: More than 20 QDII funds issued premium risk warnings on January 5th and 6th [32]. - Index Adjustments: Corewise Optoelectronics, Mingyue Lens, and BGI Genomics will be adjusted in relevant indices on January 9th [33]. - Insurance Investment: Ping An Life increased its stake in China Merchants Bank's H - shares, triggering a fourth - time stake disclosure. In 2025, seven listed banks were targeted by insurance companies [33]. - IPO: MiniMax's IPO in Hong Kong was over - subscribed by 1,209 times, and it is expected to list on January 9th [33]. Industrial Sector - Civil Aviation: In 2025, China's civil aviation passenger volume reached 770 million, a record high, with international passenger volume up 21.6% [34]. - Oil Price Adjustment: The first domestic refined - oil price adjustment in 2026 was postponed [34]. - Automobile Industry: In 2025, China's auto production and sales are expected to exceed 34 million, with new - energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of new - car sales [34]. - Data Standards: China will introduce over 30 data - related national standards in 2026 [34]. - Banking: Small and medium - sized banks are adjusting deposit rates in a more diversified way [36]. Overseas Developments - Geopolitics: Trump is considering various options to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free - association agreement, and military means [37]. - Military Movements: Many U.S. military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran is on high alert [37]. - U.S. Secret Service: The U.S. Secret Service plans to recruit 4,000 new employees by 2028 [37]. International Stock Markets - U.S. Stocks: The three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.99% to 49,462.08, the S&P 500 up 0.62% to 6,944.82, and the Nasdaq up 0.65% to 23,547.17. The Dow and S&P 500 hit record closes [38]. - European Stocks: The three major European stock indices rose, with the German DAX up 0.27% to 24,936.46, the French CAC 40 up 0.32% to 8,237.43, and the UK FTSE 100 up 1.18% to 10,122.73 [39]. - Asia - Pacific Stocks: Most Asia - Pacific stock indices rose, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.32% to 52,518.08, the TOPIX up 1.75% to 3,538.44, and the South Korean KOSPI up 1.52% to 4,525.48 [41]. - Saudi Arabia: The Saudi capital market will open to all foreign investors on February 1st [41]. - Investment Views: Ray Dalio warns that the AI boom is in the early stage of a bubble, and gold is the real winner in 2025 [41]. - MSCI: MSCI will not remove "DATCOs" from its indices [42]. - Nvidia: Nvidia expects its data - center chip revenue to exceed 500 billion dollars by the end of 2026 [42]. Commodity Markets - Domestic Commodities: As mentioned before, most domestic commodity futures rose [43]. - International Precious Metals: COMEX gold and silver futures rose as described [45]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices fell for the reasons mentioned [45]. - London Base Metals: All London base metals rose [45]. - Gold Forecast: Morgan Stanley expects gold to reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, and is more bullish on aluminum and copper among base metals [46]. Bond Markets - Chinese Bonds: The Chinese bond market was under pressure, with interest - rate bond yields rising about 2bp. The 30 - year bond futures fell 0.31%. The central bank conducted 1.62 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan [47]. - U.S. Bonds: U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board [47]. Foreign Exchange Markets - China's Forex Policy: The State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to introduce policies on overseas lending and cross - border fund management in 2026 [49]. - Exchange Rates: The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.9813, down 7 basis points. The RMB central parity rate was set at 7.0173, up 57 basis points. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.28% to 98.60 [49]. 4. Upcoming Events - Lenovo's Innovation Technology Conference will launch personal super - intelligent agents at 09:00 [51]. - The People's Bank of China has 528.8 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase agreements maturing at 09:20 [51]. - The 2026 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is being held in Las Vegas, and the 16th China Internet Industry Annual Conference will be held in Beijing from January 7th - 8th [51]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung is on a state visit to China [51]. - Fed Governor Bowman will speak at a bankers' seminar at 05:10 the next day [51].