大越期货PVC期货早报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, and the current demand may continue to be sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4875 - 4963. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The output of calcium - carbide - based enterprises was 338,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 145,710 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.51%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling [8]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 29.78%, 35.6%, 66.43%, and 80.75% respectively, with varying degrees of decline or flat compared to the previous period, all higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [9]. - Cost Side: The profit of calcium - carbide - based production was - 713.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 279.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 16.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2102.35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [9]. - Other Aspects: On January 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 249 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Factory inventory was 309,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. Social inventory was 525,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21%. The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and short positions increased [10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, and costs of different types of PVC (such as calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as their changes compared to the previous period [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures base price, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [19]. - Futures Price and Volume: It presents the price and trading volume trends of the PVC main contract, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - Spread Analysis: The report analyzes the spread trends between different contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental - Calcium - Carbide - Based - Lump Coke: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of lump coke used in calcium - carbide production [28]. - Calcium Carbide: The report presents the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It shows the price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [33]. - Caustic Soda: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of caustic soda. It also shows the cost - profit of Shandong chlor - alkali and the double - ton price difference [36][39]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It presents the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40][42]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the daily trading volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, as well as the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also presents the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government new - issue special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [45][47][52]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium - carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene - Based - It presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [58]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [61].