大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a 1.16% week - on - week increase, equal to the historical average for the same period. In December 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a 1.23% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a 13.46% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 99,894 tons, a 0.98% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,581 tons, a 3.22% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average for the same period. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 124,131 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production income is - 694 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 123,199 yuan/ton, a 2.10% daily increase, and the production income is 5,161 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit; the production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market trend: The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - led, and lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 136,620 - 143,300 [9]. - Influencing factors: Positive factors include the production suspension and reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [11][12]. - Main logic: Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market sentiment fluctuates due to news [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply and demand analysis: As mentioned above, the supply and demand situations of lithium carbonate are presented in terms of production, inventory, and import/export [8][9]. - Cost and profit analysis: Different raw material sources have different cost - profit situations, with the salt lake side having obvious cost advantages [10]. - Market trend prediction: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate within the specified range, affected by both positive and negative factors [9][11][12]. - Main risk points: Production suspension/reduction and maintenance plans may impact the market, and the start - up time of industry consolidation is uncertain [14]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data 2.1 Market Overview - Price changes: The prices of various lithium - related products, such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 7.93%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4.71% [16]. - Futures data: The closing price of the futures contract increased, and the number of registered warrants increased by 8.81% [16]. 2.2 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium ore increased, and the import volume of lithium concentrate also increased significantly. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations [19][25]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The weekly and monthly production and capacity of different production methods (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased, and the export volume also increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of different sources (causticization, smelting) showed certain changes [19][39]. 2.3 Demand - Side Data - Lithium batteries: The monthly production volume of lithium battery cells, the monthly battery loading volume, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed growth trends. The prices of different types of batteries also changed [56]. - Ternary precursors: The price, cost, and production volume of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations. The monthly supply - demand balance also changed, with a short - term supply surplus in some months [61][64]. - Ternary materials: The price, cost - profit, production volume, and export/import volume of ternary materials showed different trends. The weekly start - up rate also fluctuated [66]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The price, cost - profit, production volume, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate/phosphate showed certain changes. The monthly start - up rate also changed [71]. - New energy vehicles: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles all increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed an upward trend [78]. 2.4 Inventory Data - Lithium carbonate: The overall inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties [10][19][52]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed certain fluctuations [52]. - Lithium batteries: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types [58]. - Ternary precursors: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed certain changes [61]. - Ternary materials: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [68]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed certain trends [74][75].