PVC期货早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall supply pressure is strong while the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4928 - 5016. [8][9][10][13] - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Supply - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 145,710 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.51%. [8] Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 29.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 35.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 66.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.75%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. [9] Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 279.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 16.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2187.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. [9] Basis - On January 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 212 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 309,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 226,576 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%. The ethylene factory inventory was 82,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. The social inventory was 525,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.77%. [10] Market - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. [10] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position has increased. [10] Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week with an increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, and production of different types of PVC [15][16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the double - ton spread and caustic soda consumption and inventory [27][30][32][35][38]. Supply - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [40][42]. Demand - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate, and profit, cost, and production of paste resin of PVC. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][47][51][54]. Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55]. Ethylene Method - It provides the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads of the ethylene method [57]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 [60].