原木期货日报-20260108

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 8, 2026, the log futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 782 yuan per cubic meter, up 8 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day [3] - The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged. The price of medium A radiata pine of 3.9 meters in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, and that of medium A radiata pine of 4 meters in Jiangsu was 730 yuan per cubic meter. The latest round of FOB quotes was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars [3] - Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3] - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments, but the demand remains weak and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, the contradiction is insufficient, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 7, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 were 742, 782, 790.5, and 802 respectively, with changes of -25.5, 8, 5.5, and 5 compared to January 6, and the corresponding price change percentages were -3.32%, 1.03%, 0.70%, and 0.63% respectively. The basis of the main contract was -42, a decrease of 8 compared to January 6 [1] - The spot prices of various types of radiata pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 7 compared to January 6 [1] - The FOB quote of medium A 4 - meter radiata pine on January 9 was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars compared to January 2, with a decrease rate of 1.79%; the FOB quote of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from January 2 [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 7, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.984, an increase of 0.01 compared to January 6. The import theoretical cost was 756.62 yuan, a decrease of 12.50 yuan compared to January 6, with a decrease rate of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters compared to October 31, with an increase rate of 1.16%. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52, an increase of 3 compared to the previous period, with an increase rate of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2, the total domestic log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.12%. The inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.29%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 508,800 cubic meters [1][3] Demand: (Weekly) Average Daily Delivery Volume - As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 3%. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 4%. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 11% [3]