工业硅期货早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial Silicon: Supply remains high while demand is sluggish, with costs rising during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8865 - 9095. There are both positive factors like cost support and negative factors such as slow post - holiday demand recovery [3][6]. - Polysilicon: Supply production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490. There are also positive and negative factors affecting the market [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, indicating persistent weak demand [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase. Sample enterprise inventory was 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase. Main port inventory was 140,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry - season [3]. - Basis: On January 7th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling is decreasing but remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the 8865 - 9095 range [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease. The predicted production for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Silicon wafer production shows short - term increases and medium - term potential pull - backs, while battery cell and component production continues to decline. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline [8][9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,900 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On January 7th, the price of N - type dense material was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [11]. - Expectation: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures Closing Price: Most contracts showed price increases, with the largest increase of 1.40% in the 12 - month contract [17]. - Basis: Most basis values decreased, with the 12 - month contract showing a significant change [17]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10,799, a 1.05% increase [17]. - Organosilicon: DMC production decreased by 6.10%, while D4 price increased by 1.08%. The monthly DMC inventory increased by 21.18% [17]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.85%, and the import profit increased by 67.65% [17]. - Spot Price: Most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, and sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.48% [17]. - Production/Operating Rate: Overall production increased slightly, while the operating rate in Sichuan decreased significantly [17]. Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer: Most silicon wafer prices remained unchanged, and the weekly production increased by 5.74%, while the inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - Futures Closing Price: Most contracts showed price decreases, with the largest decrease of 2.56% in the 04 contract [19]. - Basis: All basis values decreased [19]. - Battery Cell: Most battery cell prices remained unchanged, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [19]. - Component: Most component prices remained unchanged, and the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, while the export volume increased by 5.54% [19]. - Inventory: Domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and European inventory decreased by 5.44% [19]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, and the consumption decreased by 10.37% [19].