豆粕早报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal (M2605) - Expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the rebound of US soybeans, demand improvement, and a mix of positive and negative news, it will likely maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [9]. - The basis shows a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow, which is bearish [9]. 2.2. Soybeans (A2605) - Expected to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by the US soybean situation, domestic demand recovery, and the interaction of multiple factors, it will remain in an oscillatory state in the short - term [11]. - The basis shows a discount, which is bearish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing with capital inflow, which is bullish [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No information provided 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory range [13]. - The decline in domestic hog - farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports price expectations, and the interaction of US soybean influence and demand increase has led to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Considering the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US and South American soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors are that the total arrival of imported soybeans in December remained at a relatively high level, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean - harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are that the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - Bearish factors are the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases, as well as the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations [16]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 26 to January 7 are provided, along with the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from December 29 to January 7 [17][19]. - Information on soybean and meal warehouse receipts from December 25 to January 7 is presented [21]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [34]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2023/24 season is given, including data from December 13 to January 24 for planting and from April 21 to June 16 for harvesting [35]. - The planting, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 are provided, including data from April 28 to November 10 [36][37][38][39]. - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 3, 2024, to May 4, 2025, and from October 25, 2025, to December 26, 2025 [40][41][43]. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 13, 2024, to January 15, 2025, and from November 12, 2025, to December 30, 2025 [42][44]. 3.4.4. Other Data - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided 3.6. Other Market Conditions - The soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot premium remaining at a high level [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year [26][51]. - The procurement of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises increased from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained at a relatively high level [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained at a low level [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The hog inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [57]. - The hog price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [59]. - The proportion of large hogs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The domestic hog - farming profit fluctuated slightly [63].