瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the near - term, the total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. The rubber price is oscillating at a high level before the holiday. Some tire enterprises are on holiday for maintenance. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode and are cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port has led to a significant increase in the total inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased this week. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may slightly rebound next week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE rubber contract is 16,120 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,065 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The SHFE rubber 5 - 9 spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between SHFE rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,055 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The position of the main SHFE rubber contract is 196,468 lots, down 3,654 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 71,121 lots, down 1,611 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE rubber is - 46,456 lots, up 3,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,566 lots, up 475 lots. The SHFE rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 103,190 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 57,154 tons, up 202 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,925 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The SHFE rubber basis is - 430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main SHFE rubber contract is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,368 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.31 Thai baht/kg, up 0.72 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 56.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.6 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars [2] 3.5 Import Volume - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, down 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 59,130,100 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58,316,630 pieces [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.8%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.62%, up 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.63%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] 3.8 Weather and Market News - From January 3rd to January 9th, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. North of the equator, there is no red - alert area, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red - alert areas are mainly in Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, reducing the impact on tapping. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4th, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a 4.48% increase. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an 8.16% increase; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, a 3.8% increase. As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a 2.75 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 13.97 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.5%, a 2.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 3.37 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [2]