农产品早报-20260109

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices may rise again due to downstream seasonal restocking after New Year's Day, and long - term price trends depend on import and domestic auction policies. Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near future, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Egg prices could benefit in the second quarter if there is a concentrated culling of hens before Laba Festival. The key driver is the culling rhythm [6] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium - term due to consumer competition [9] - Short - term pig market sentiment is weak, and stage supply - demand mismatches may still exist in January. Long - term expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] - Short - term sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices, and may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 20 - unit change in蛇口 price, a - 18 change in basis, and a 20 change in trade profit. Starch basis decreased by 8, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are affected by policy and supply, with strong basis and potential for price increase due to downstream restocking. Starch prices are weak due to slow de - stocking, but may strengthen slightly later [3] - Long - term: Corn prices depend on import and auction policies, and starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 4: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, egg prices in some regions increased, with a - 16 change in basis, and slight changes in substitute prices [5] Market Analysis - The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of hens. Concentrated culling before Laba Festival may benefit second - quarter prices [6] Group 5: Apples Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, apple spot prices remained stable, basis changed, and inventory decreased slightly [8][9] Market Analysis - Short - term: The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere, but prices are firm, and the futures market may maintain high - level oscillations [9] - Medium - term: The market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to consumer competition [9] Group 6: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, with a - 35 change in basis [9] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak after New Year's Day, but there may be supply - demand mismatches in January [9] - Long - term: Expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] Group 7: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, sugar spot prices changed slightly, basis increased by 2, import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10] Market Analysis - Short - term: Sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices [10] - Long - term: Prices may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] Group 8: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, cotton prices changed, import profit and other indicators also changed [10] Market Analysis - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10]