永安期货有色早报-20260109

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the copper market, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has significantly declined due to high prices. Attention should be paid to price support near the psychological price levels of downstream buyers. The continuous high export data of domestic electrolytic copper has led to an unobvious inventory accumulation rate. Looking ahead, macro - level factors such as changes in domestic risk appetite and the Fed's actions, as well as industrial - level factors like the narrowing of the New York spread and the maintenance of high premiums in non - US regions, should be monitored [1]. - In the aluminum market, the actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected, with signs of weakening in both domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption. Although the basis is at a multi - year low, the low inventory level and strong expectations can support the current high prices [1]. - In the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are currently poor, but there are temporary supply reductions at the end of the year, making it difficult for the price center to fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal and external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [2]. - In the nickel market, the short - term fundamental reality is weak. There is a game between policy and fundamentals due to the news of Indonesia's quota reduction plan, increasing the motivation for long - position trading [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the fundamentals remain weak overall, but the news of quota reduction from the Indonesian Nickel Association has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - In the lead market, the supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, with low inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - In the tin market, there are signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals. In the short term, the supply may be volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply. It can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [12]. - In the industrial silicon market, the supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [15][16]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has provided some support. The raw material supply is still tight, and the upstream is mainly focused on long - term contracts, with the manufacturer's inventory being depleted [20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 574, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper warehouse receipts increased by 12,211. The spot import profit increased by 221.84, and the three - month import profit increased by 119.19 [1]. - Market Outlook: The domestic market's high - price suppression of downstream demand and the impact of export data on inventory, along with macro and industrial factors, need to be monitored [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 140, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2000. The spot import profit increased by 130.41, and the three - month import profit decreased by 288.47 [1]. - Market Outlook: Weakening domestic demand, low basis, and low inventory levels support high prices [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 2500. The spot import profit increased by 463.17, and the futures import profit increased by 243.33 [2]. - Market Outlook: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term supply reduction, and trading strategy suggestions [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1800, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 666. The spot import return increased by 9963.54 [3]. - Market Outlook: Weak short - term fundamentals and a game between policy and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - Price Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100 [7]. - Market Outlook: Weak fundamentals and short - term price rebound driven by policy news [7]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the lead spot premium decreased by 15, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 3975. The spot import return increased by 242.86 [8][24]. - Market Outlook: Alleviated supply - demand mismatch, short - supply of spot, and expected price fluctuations [9]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the tin spot import return increased by 412.06, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged. The tin持仓 decreased by 7626 [12]. - Market Outlook: Marginal weakening of fundamentals and supply - related risks [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 445, and the 553 East China basis increased by 445. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 7 [15]. - Market Outlook: Approaching supply - demand balance in the short term and long - term price cycle bottom oscillation [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 5000, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 590. The main contract basis increased by 2300 [20]. - Market Outlook: Impact of downstream production and subsidy policies on price, tight raw material supply, and inventory depletion [20].