建信期货集运指数日报-20260109

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro - Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - The SCFIS index has further rebounded by 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented. The shipping price in early January was maintained at a median level of around $2880. The spot high may be approaching. Considering the increasing expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points. The shipping price in early January was around $2880, and the late - January quotation was in the range of $2700 - $3100. The Maersk's fourth - week opening price of $2800 for European base ports was better than expected, but the reduction of non - European base port quotes dampened bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the 02 - 04 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8] 2. Industry News - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the China Export Container Transport Market showed a good trend. The Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index rose 6.7% to 1656.32 points on December 26. European routes: The European economy was weak in 2025, facing geopolitical and energy security issues, but the spot market booking price rose during the signing season, with the Shanghai - to - European base port freight rising 10.2%. Mediterranean routes: The market price continued to rise, with a 10.9% increase in Shanghai - to - Mediterranean base port freight. North American routes: The US labor market showed some resilience, and the shipping demand was good, with the Shanghai - to - US West and East base port freight rising 9.8% and 6.6% respectively [9][10] - Many shipping companies announced price increases. MSC raised the freight rates of multiple routes from December 15 to December 31. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases. CMA CGM announced PSS and FAK rate adjustments [10] - Military operations in the Middle East continued. The Israeli army killed many Hamas members. The armed militants in the Rafah tunnels were still in contact with the Hamas military leadership [10] - The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation from early December, but Maersk later stated that the specific date had not been determined [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS European route (base ports): The index on January 5, 2026, was 1795.83, up 3.1% from December 29, 2025. SCFIS US West route (base ports): The index was 1250.12, down 3.9% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Provided the trading data summary of the container shipping European line futures on January 8, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest and its change of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - related Data Charts - Included multiple data charts such as the European container ship capacity, the global container ship order backlog, the Shanghai - European base port freight, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight [18][20]