纯碱、玻璃日报-20260109

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided. Core Views - Soda ash supply increased and inventory accumulated as of January 8, maintaining a weak pattern. The short - term is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to macro sentiment and other factors, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved [8][9]. - Glass futures' main contract FG2605 continued to rise on January 8, 2025. Short - term supply contraction may support prices, but high inventory restricts the market, and the upward trend is slow [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - Supply: As of the week of January 8, the weekly output rose to 753,600 tons, a year - high, with a month - on - month increase of 8.11%. The equipment operation is stable with no maintenance plan [8]. - Demand: This week, the total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises decreased to 589,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.99%. The downstream float glass daily melting volume decreased by 300 tons to 151,500 tons, while the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume of 88,500 tons was relatively stable [8]. - Inventory: Affected by logistics during the festival, the factory inventory increased to 1.5727 million tons [8]. - Policy: The Shanxi differential electricity price policy strengthened the expectation of capacity clearance and "anti - involution" policies, accelerating the clearance of ammonia - alkali plants [8][9]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the long - term supply - demand pattern remains unoptimistic without significant export expansion or backward capacity clearance [9]. Glass - Market: On January 8, 2025, the main contract FG2605 continued to rise. The market shipment was good, with obvious inventory reduction in some areas, and prices were boosted by market sentiment [10][11]. - Supply: There is an expectation of supply reduction. The overall inventory is high with obvious regional differentiation [11]. - Outlook: Short - term supply contraction may support the price, but high inventory restricts the market. The upward trend is slow, and there is an expectation of rebound and decline before substantial positive factors appear [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data from Wind and iFind [13][18][20]