建信期货生猪日报-20260109

1. Report Industry and Date - Report industry is the pig industry, and it is a daily report [1] - Report date is January 9, 2026 [2] 2. Key Points of Each Section 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 8th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose and fell in shock, closing with a negative line. The highest was 11,880 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,685 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,720 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 1,216 lots to 364,327 lots [6] - Spot: On the 8th, the national average price of ternary pigs was 12.54 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - Supply: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening before the festival has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has slightly increased. The slaughter of breeding enterprises in January may continue to increase slightly, and currently, the breeding side is slaughtering normally [7] - Demand: After the price increase, secondary fattening has decreased, with rolling replenishment demand. Post - festival consumption is slowly recovering, and there is still room for demand for curing and sausage - making. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises are slowly increasing. On January 8th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 189,600 heads, 1,500 heads less than the previous day, 11,000 heads less than the previous week, and 7,000 heads more than the previous month [7] - Overall: Spot prices are mainly fluctuating due to slow - recovering post - festival consumption and relatively loose supply. Futures prices are under pressure due to the expected slight increase in pig supply, strong pre - Spring Festival demand elasticity, and relatively high secondary fattening pressure. However, the previous more severe northern epidemic in the same period continues to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the epidemic shows no signs of continued spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally [7] 2.2 Industry News - From January 4th, the proportion of small - weight pigs (below 90 kg) in the overall slaughter was 5.44%, down 0.07% from the previous week. Due to the seasonal sporadic occurrence of the epidemic, the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased, and there is no sign of the epidemic spreading [8][10] 2.3 Data Overview - On January 4th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, up 12 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - As of January 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 28.3 yuan, an increase of 96 yuan per week; the average profit per pig raised by purchasing piglets was - 160.8 yuan, an increase of 95 yuan per week [17] - As of the week of January 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66 kg, down 1.04 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), down 1.16 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and up 2.6 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%) [17]