建信期货多晶硅日报-20260109

Report Information - Report Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The policy aspect remains the dominant logic, with anti - involution vs. anti - monopoly. Liquidity shortage amplifies emotional fluctuations, and multiple contracts closed at the daily limit down. The exchange continues the previous margin increase and position limit policies, making operations difficult, so it is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals still face real challenges [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Multiple polycrystalline silicon contracts hit the daily limit down. The PS2605 contract closed at 53,610 yuan/ton, a 9% decline, with a trading volume of 39,605 lots, an open interest of 58,049 lots, a net decrease of 9,751 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 5,354 lots, and the top twenty short positions had a net decrease of 5,148 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The transaction price range of n - type polycrystalline silicon re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. - Future Outlook: The expected polycrystalline silicon output in January is about 80,000 - 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream is in a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices squeezes the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and components is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively [4]. 2. Market News - On January 8, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 4,390 lots, an increase of 50 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In December 2025, the output of Chinese silicon wafer enterprises was 46.6GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.75% and a year - on - year increase of 8.62%. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in January 2026 will be 46.18GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% [5]. - In December 2025, the output of Chinese cell enterprises was 46.22GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62%. It is expected that the cell production schedule in January 2026 will be 39.06GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15.51% [5]. - In December 2025, the output of Chinese photovoltaic module enterprises was 35.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.59%. It is expected that the photovoltaic module production schedule in January 2026 will be 31.14GW, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54% [5].