广发早知道：汇总版-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand, price trends, and market sentiment of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and bond futures; in the commodity sector, it covers metals, energy, and chemical products; in the agricultural products sector, it includes grains, oils, and fruits. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily精选 - PVC: After the fading of emotional influence, both futures and spot prices declined. With increasing supply expectations and weak demand, the market is in an oversupply situation and may face a downward adjustment. [2] - Iron Ore: The price first rose and then fell, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It will gradually shift from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with high - inventory pressure on the upside and steel mill restocking expectations on the downside. [3] - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, high prices and policy supply supplements suppress the upward space. [4] - Silver: Tight inventory boosts the price. After the end of the short - term "irrational" rise driven by funds, attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. [5] 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Thursday, A - share major indexes showed mixed performance. The technology sector was strong, and there was a divergence between large - and small - cap indexes. The four major stock index futures contracts also had mixed performances, with some in a premium or discount state. [6][7] - News: Domestically, the warehouse index in December 2025 showed an upward trend; overseas, the Bank of Japan was optimistic about the economic outlook. [7][8] - Funding: On January 8, the trading volume in the A - share market was stable, and the central bank conducted net capital injections. [8] - Operation Suggestion: After the index breaks through the previous high, it is recommended to take partial profits on single - side long positions in futures, hold bullish spread portfolios, and consider constructing covered call portfolios at low prices. [8] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - Market Performance: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. [9] - Funding: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. However, attention should be paid to the possible impact of increasing leverage on liquidity. [9] - Operation Suggestion: After three consecutive days of decline, the bond market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see for single - side strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term for curve strategies. [10][11] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market Review: The inflation expectations in the US increased, and the unemployment situation showed some changes. The adjustment of the weights of major commodity indexes led to short - term selling of gold and silver, but the decline was limited due to geopolitical risks and other factors. [12][13][14] - Outlook: The US economy shows structural differentiation, and the market's expectation of monetary policy easing may increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is advisable to maintain a light - position long strategy above $70. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term. [14][15][16] 3.4 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Index Performance: As of January 5, the SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West route index fell. As of December 26, the SCFI composite index rose. [17] - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The Eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.5, and the US December manufacturing PMI was 47.9. [17] - Logic: The futures price declined, and the spot price entered a downward trend. It is expected to decline in the short - term. [17] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Spot: As of January 8, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market supply was sufficient while high prices suppressed consumption. [17] - Macro: The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and geopolitical issues affected the market sentiment. [18] - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level. The electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. [19] - Demand: The copper rod production rate was significantly lower than the seasonal level, and the downstream demand was weak. [19] - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased. [21] - Logic: The short - term price may be overvalued, but the medium - to long - term fundamentals are good. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. [22] 3.5.2 Alumina - Spot: On January 8, the spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly decreased. The supply was gradually becoming more abundant, and the price was under pressure. [22] - Supply: In December 2025, the production increased slightly. Considering the losses of some small and medium - sized plants, the production may decrease slightly in January. [23] - Inventory: The port, factory, and electrolytic aluminum plant inventories all increased. [23] - Logic: The futures price declined, and the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [24] 3.5.3 Aluminum - Spot: On January 8, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the spot market was inactive. [24] - Supply: In December 2025, the production increased. In the coming year, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may decline. [25] - Demand: The processing product's weekly production rates were differentiated, and the overall demand was weak. [26] - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in domestic inventories. [26] - Logic: The short - term funds showed a retreat sign. The macro environment is positive, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. [27] 3.5.4 Other Non - ferrous Metals - Zinc: The price oscillated and adjusted. The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, but the import window might open. The demand was relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [31][32][34] - Tin: The price fell from a high level. The supply from Myanmar may increase, and the demand in the South China region was relatively stable. It is recommended to wait and see. [35][36][38] - Nickel: The price dropped significantly. The supply and demand were both weak, and the market was affected by news from Indonesia. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices. [38][39][40] - Stainless Steel: The price adjusted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the demand in the off - season was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [41][42][43] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price fluctuated widely. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was resilient but faced a decline in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see. [45][46][47] - Polysilicon: The futures price limit - down. The supply was expected to decrease, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [48][49][50] - Industrial Silicon: The price decreased due to the influence of polysilicon. The supply and demand were both weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply reduction situation. [50][51][52] 3.6 Black Metals 3.6.1 Steel - Spot: The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price was weak. The cost pushed up the steel price, but the profit margin decreased. [52] - Supply: The production increased slightly, but the increase was limited considering the off - season demand. [53] - Demand: The demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory entered the accumulation stage. [53][54] - View: The steel price is expected to oscillate within a certain range, with raw material prices providing support. [54] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Spot and Futures: The spot price decreased, and the futures price also declined. The demand was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. [55][56] - View: The iron ore market will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with price fluctuations within a certain range. [56] 3.6.3 Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price in Shanxi was weak, while the Mongolian coal price followed the futures. [57][60] - Supply: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. [58][59] - Demand: The steel mill's iron - making production increased, and the coking plant's production also increased. [58][59] - View: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [60] 3.6.4 Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures price first rose and then fell, and the fourth - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. [61][64] - Supply: The coking plant's production increased. [62] - Demand: The steel mill's iron - making production increased. [62] - View: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [64] 3.6.5 Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: The price decreased significantly. The supply was stable, and the demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had certain support. It is expected to oscillate within a range. [65][66] - Manganese Silicon: The price decreased. The supply was at a relatively low level, and the demand was stable. The manganese ore price provided support. It is expected to oscillate widely. [67][68][69] 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - Spot Market: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [70] - Fundamentals: The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans to China may decrease, and the soybean harvest in Brazil is in the early stage with good yields. [71] - View: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate within a range, affected by the USDA report and domestic supply - demand. [72] 3.7.2 Other Agricultural Products - Hogs: The spot price was stable. After the New Year, the demand decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The futures price may face pressure. [73][74] - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. High prices and policy supplements suppress the upward space. [75][76][77] - Sugar: The Brazilian sugar - making season is ending, and the focus is on the northern hemisphere. The domestic price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [78] - Cotton: The US cotton price may oscillate, and the domestic cotton price is expected to be bullish in the short - term but may face a callback. [80][81] - Eggs: The supply may decrease, and the demand is cautious. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [82][83] - Oils: The prices of different oils showed different trends. Palm oil may break through after the MPOB report; soybean oil may decline; and rapeseed oil is affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations and is weak in the short - term. [84][86][87] - Jujubes: The market trading was light, and the futures price decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds. [89] - Apples: The price was under pressure. The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions. [90] 3.8 Energy Chemicals 3.8.1 PX - Spot and Profit: The price decreased, and the profit margin was compressed. [91] - Supply and Demand: The supply was at a high level, and the demand was weak. [91][93] - View: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may be bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [93] 3.8.2 Other Energy Chemical Products - PTA: The futures price decreased, and the supply - demand was expected to weaken in the first quarter. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate in the short - term, and go long at low prices in the medium - term. [94][95] - Short - fiber: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. [96] - Bottle - grade PET: The supply and demand are expected to decrease in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy. [98][99] - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and conduct reverse spreads. [100] - Pure Benzene: The price is under pressure due to high inventory, but the demand has slightly improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. [101][102] - Styrene: The price is supported in the short - term but may face inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see and short the processing fee at high prices. [103][104] - LLDPE: The supply is expected to decrease marginally, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term. [105] - PP: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. It is recommended to hold the profitable PDH positions. [106] - Methanol: The demand - side maintenance increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [106] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak and stable. [107][108] - PVC: The price decreased due to weak supply - demand and high inventory. It may face a downward adjustment. [109][110] - Urea: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, affected by the Indian tender and cost factors. [111][112] - Soda Ash: The price oscillates, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][115] - Glass: The price is strong, supported by cost and winter - storage policies. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][116] - Natural Rubber: The price declined due to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. [116][118][119] - Synthetic Rubber: The price continued to rise, although the fundamental support was limited. It is recommended not to short in the short - term. [119][120][121]