集运早报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For EC2602, it follows the spot market, the peak may have appeared in week 4, the subsequent price - cut rhythm is hard to judge, and the risk - reward ratio is poor at the current level, so entry is not recommended [3] - For EC2604, the main strategy is to short on rallies. The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and it's difficult to have an independent market in the short term [3] - For EC2610, the strategy is also to short on rallies. Since its price is the lowest, there is a high possibility of capital pulling under the disturbance of geopolitical reversal news [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1706.0, down 4.11%, with a basis of 1681.7, yesterday's trading volume was 27173, and the open interest was 20008, a decrease of 1803 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1163.3, down 1.58%, with a basis of 2224.4, yesterday's trading volume was 16470, and the open interest was 27774, an increase of 1435 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1415.0, down 0.56%, with a basis of 1972.7, yesterday's trading volume was 929, and the open interest was 2476, a decrease of 3 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1527.4, down 0.37%, with a basis of 1860.3, yesterday's trading volume was 225, and the open interest was 1200, an increase of 8 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1105.2, down 0.61%, with a basis of 2282.5, yesterday's trading volume was 1277, and the open interest was 6619, a decrease of 131 [2] Month - spread Information - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 542.7, today it's 597.1, three days ago it was 648.9, with a daily decrease of 54.4 and a weekly decrease of 92.6 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's month - spread was - 251.7, today it's - 240.9, three days ago it was - 193.2, with a daily decrease of 10.8 and a weekly decrease of 49.8 [2] Index Information - Machine information: Updated weekly on Monday, announced on January 6, 2025, the current value is 3387.69 points, down 3.59% from the previous period, while the previous period increased by 4.44% [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Friday, announced on December 26, 2025, the current value is 1690 dollars/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period, while the previous period decreased by 0.33% [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 3: MSK opened at 2600 dollars (up 100 from the previous period), OA was 2800 - 2900 dollars, PA was 2600 dollars, and the freight rate center was 2775 dollars (equivalent to 1940 points on the disk) [4] - Week 4: MSK opened at 2700 dollars (up 100 from the previous period), OA was 2800 - 2900 dollars, PA was 2600 dollars (YML had a special price of 2450 dollars on one route), the freight rate center was 2750 dollars (equivalent to 1930 points on the disk). On Thursday, COSCO/OOCL reduced the price by 200 to 2800 dollars in the second half of the month. YML announced a special price of 2450 dollars on one route. ONE's second - half - month quote was 2600 dollars [4] Related News - On January 9, Israel said Lebanon's efforts to disarm Hezbollah were "far from enough" [5] - On January 9, the Israeli Defense Forces monitored a rocket launch from the Gaza City area towards Israeli territory. The rocket failed to reach the target and fell near a hospital in the Gaza Strip. After the failed rocket launch from Gaza, the Israeli army attacked the launch site [5]