建信期货铜期货日报-20260109

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper dropping to around 100,000. The decline was due to the margin increase of silver by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which led to profit - taking of long - position funds in precious and base metals. Also, high copper prices suppressed downstream demand. Although the medium - term macro and fundamental aspects are still favorable, short - term prices face correction pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 100,000 for the main Shanghai copper contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fell, with the main Shanghai copper contract reaching around 100,000. The price drop was caused by the margin adjustment and weak downstream demand. Domestic social inventory increased by 16,200 tons to 273,800 tons compared to Monday. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 4,834 yuan/ton, but the scrap copper substitution advantage remained obvious. The spot import loss shrank to 788 yuan/ton, and both import and export windows were closed. Short - term, it is advisable to watch the 100,000 support level of the main Shanghai copper contract [9]. 3.2 Industry News - S&P Global stated that the growth of AI and the defense industry will increase global copper demand by 50% to 42 million tons by 2040 (from 28 million tons in 2025). Without improved recycling and mining, the annual supply shortage could exceed 10 million tons [9]. - Codelco achieved a slight increase in copper production in 2025, reaching 1.333 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase. Its 2026 target production is 1.344 million tons [9].