《黑色》日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices fluctuated within a range, with this week's data showing increased production, accumulated inventory, and a significant decline in apparent demand. The current demand is in a seasonal off - peak, while steel mill production has rebounded from a low level, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, and inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Before the Spring Festival, steel usually accumulates inventory seasonally. The decline in the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The raw materials, coking coal and iron ore, support steel prices due to strong supply - side expectations. The fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils between 3150 - 3350 [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a situation of loose supply and demand to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment, policy expectations, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations should be monitored. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the futures market saw a peak - to - fall trend, while the spot market is weakly stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and implementing production restrictions to maintain prices. The supply is recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills resume production after the New Year. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, the futures market continued to rise, and the spot market also showed a mixed performance. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing as steel mills reduce losses and increase production. The overall inventory is slightly increasing in the middle position. The recommended strategy is to go short on the spot at high prices on a light - position basis and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - For ferrosilicon, the futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by market sentiment. The supply is at a historically neutral - low level, with some potential for short - term increase. The demand from the steel - making industry has some support, and the non - steel demand, such as from the metal magnesium industry, is also strong. The cost is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 5500 - 6200. For silicomanganese, the futures price also decreased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand from the steel - making industry is increasing. The manganese ore price provides support for the silicomanganese price. The supply - demand situation is in a state of slight oversupply but with overall balance in manganese elements. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the recommended strategy is range - bound trading, with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. For example, rebar in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton, while hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slab remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace and converter rebar increased slightly. The profit of rebar in South China increased by 48, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 5 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The rebar output increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 4.2 to 8.4, a 33.1% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different iron ore powders increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.5 to 21.0, a 10.6% decrease, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 34.0 to 45.0, a 309.1% increase [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8 to 227.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 10.2 to 325.2, a 3.2% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 41.8 to 15970.89, a 0.3% increase, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 86.4 to 8946.5, a 1.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11, a 0.7% increase [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi's medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 33, a 2.8% increase [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory remained basically unchanged, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increasing by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. For example, the ferrosilicon 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5750.0 to 5350.0, and the silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased from 5300.0 to 5650.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased significantly [7]. Supply - The production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of silicomanganese decreased by 0.3 to 19.1 [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from the steel - making industry increased slightly [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of silicomanganese in 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].