Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, with limited price drivers, and BZ2603 may oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [1] - Short - term styrene price is supported by exports, but there is an inventory build - up expectation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited [1] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is high in January, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and be considered for low - buying in the medium term [2] - PTA may be affected by inventory build - up in the first quarter, with limited self - driven factors, and will follow raw material fluctuations. It is expected to oscillate between 5000 - 5200 in the short term [2] - MEG has a large inventory build - up expectation in the near term, and its price is under pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting high - selling and low - buying spreads [2] - Short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak, and its absolute price has limited drivers, following raw material fluctuations in the short term [2] - Bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it will follow cost fluctuations in January, with limited processing fee upside [2] Urea - Urea supply is high in the short term, and demand is weak. Without new stimuli, the price may be in a weak oscillation [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4] - PVC supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the market may face a decline after reaching a high [4] Polyolefins - LLDPE supply is expected to decrease marginally, and demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to turn to inventory reduction in January, with short - term strength [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded significantly, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash supply increases, demand is stable, and the overall supply - demand pattern is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [9] - Glass supply decreases, demand weakens seasonally, and the upward space of the market is limited [9] Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia increases, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The rubber price has fallen from a high, and attention should be paid to Thai raw material conditions [11] Methanol - Methanol futures fell due to certain news, and the MTO industry faces losses. The inland market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand [13] LPG - LPG prices are in a downward trend. The upstream and downstream operating rates show different trends, and inventory changes vary [17] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China pure benzene rose 0.3% to 674 dollars/ton [1] - Styrene - related prices: Styrene East China spot price fell 0.1% to 6890 yuan/ton; EB cash flow (non - integrated) fell 7.0% to 348 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream cash flows: Phenol cash flow fell 7.8% to - 1036 yuan/ton; EPS cash flow increased 220.0% to 60 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased 6.0% to 31.80 tons; Styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased 4.7% to 13.23 tons [1] - Operating rates: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased 2.3% to 78.7%; Styrene operating rate decreased 0.7% to 70.2% [1] Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China PX fell 1.6% to 886 dollars/ton [2] - Downstream product prices: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7911 yuan/ton; Polyester bottle - chip price fell 0.3% to 6032 yuan/ton [2] - PX - related spreads: PX - crude oil spread fell 6.2% to 433 dollars/ton; PX - naphtha spread fell 6.0% to 345 dollars/ton [2] - MEG: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 73.0 tons; MEG to - port expectation increased 66.4% to 17.8 tons [2] - Operating rates: Asian PX operating rate increased 1.8% to 80.9%; PTA operating rate increased 10.3% to 78.1% [2] Urea - Futures prices: Urea 01 contract fell 0.77% to 1682 yuan/ton; 05 contract fell 0.78% to 1776 yuan/ton [3] - Spreads: 01 contract - 05 contract spread rose 1.09% to - 91 yuan/ton; UR - MA main contract spread rose 4.62% to - 475 yuan/ton [3] - Upstream raw materials: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) fell 1.11% to 890 yuan/ton; Steam coal port (Qinhuangdao) rose 0.43% to 700 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices: Shandong (small - particle) urea rose 0.57% to 1760 yuan/ton; Shanxi (small - particle) urea fell 0.62% to 1610 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Domestic urea daily output increased 0.55% to 20.06 tons; urea plant - in inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 tons [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and futures prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price fell 1.1% to 4650 yuan/ton [4] - Overseas quotes and export profits: FOB Middle - East port caustic soda price fell 1.4% to 365 dollars/ton; PVC export profit fell 118.7% to - 45.3 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased 0.2% to 88.7%; PVC total operating rate decreased 0.9% to 75.4% [4] - Demand: Alumina industry operating rate remained unchanged at 79.9%; Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate decreased 3.7% to 36.2% [4] - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China plant - in inventory decreased 2.6% to 22.1 tons; PVC total social inventory increased 0.6% to 51.4 tons [4] Polyolefins - Futures prices: L2601 closed at 6410 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6484 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [6] - Spreads: L15 spread fell 2.83% to - 218 yuan/ton; PP15 spread fell 12.64% to - 196 yuan/ton [6] - Spot prices: East China PP drawstring spot price remained unchanged at 6280 yuan/ton; North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.31% to 6480 yuan/ton [6] - Operating rates: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.7%; PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.5% [6] - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.5 tons; PP trade - merchant inventory increased 15.52% to 20.5 tons [6] Crude Oil - Oil prices: Brent rose 3.39% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; WTI rose 3.16% to 57.76 dollars/barrel; SC fell 1.60% to 418.00 yuan/barrel [7] - Spreads: Brent M1 - M3 spread rose 37.50% to 0.77 dollars/barrel; WTI - Brent spread rose 6.55% to 4.23 dollars/barrel [7] - Refined oil prices: NYM RBOB rose 3.88% to 176.03 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil rose 1.46% to 609.25 dollars/ton [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices: North China glass quote rose 0.99% to 1020 yuan/ton; Glass 2601 fell 0.30% to 1013 yuan/ton [9] - Soda ash prices: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan/ton; Soda ash 2605 fell 2.70% to 1239 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: Soda ash operating rate increased 5.93% to 84.70%; Float - glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 tons [9] - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 tons; Soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 tons [9] Natural Rubber - Spot prices: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF): Shanghai rose 0.63% to 15850 yuan/ton; Cup rubber: international market: FOB mid - price rose 1.16% to 52.30 Thai baht/kg [11] - Spreads: 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton; 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 60 yuan/ton [11] - Production: November Thailand rubber production fell 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons; November China rubber production increased 20.88% to 137.20 thousand tons [11] - Operating rates: Automobile tire: semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 3.46% to 65.89%; Automobile tire: full - steel tire operating rate decreased 0.22% to 58.02% [11] - Inventory: Bonded - area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons; Natural rubber: factory - warehouse futures inventory: SHFE remained unchanged at 57959 tons [11] Methanol - Futures prices: MA2605 closed at 2231 yuan/ton, down 1.59%; MA59 spread fell 120.00% to - 4 yuan/ton [12] - Spreads: Taicang basis fell 600.00% to - 15 yuan/ton; MTO05 on - the - plate fell 13.33% to - 221 yuan/ton [12] - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia north - line spot price remained unchanged at 1848 yuan/ton; Henan Luoyang spot price fell 1.32% to 2058 yuan/ton [12] - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 tons; Methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 tons [13] - Operating rates: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%; Downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13] LPG - Futures prices: Main PG2602 fell 0.62% to 4199 yuan/ton; PG2603 fell 0.87% to 4103 yuan/ton [17] - Spreads: South China spot - PG02 spread rose 0.77% to 781 yuan/ton [17] - External prices: FEI forward M1 contract fell 1.85% to 503.00 dollars/ton; CP swap M1 contract fell 1.15% to 517.00 dollars/ton [17] - Inventory: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio rose 0.91% to 24.3%; LPG port inventory decreased 8.41% to 214 tons [17] - Operating rates: Upstream - major refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%; Downstream - PDH operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.1% [17]
《能源化工》日报-20260109
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-09 02:43