《有色》日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to be cautious in operations. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum price will maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum operating in the range of 23,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel Industry - The nickel price has fallen significantly. The market is affected by Indonesia's unclear nickel - mine quota and geopolitical risks. The short - term price will be in a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 130,000 - 135,000 [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market is affected by nickel - mine raw - material expectations. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 13,200 - 14,000 [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium - carbonate market's fundamentals are weak in the off - season, but the post - holiday news boosts the sentiment. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and attention should be paid to the liquidity risk and regulatory possibility [13]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - valued irrationally. The short - term price will still maintain a relatively strong trend, and the volatility may increase [15]. Zinc Industry - The zinc price will fluctuate in the short term. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc - mine supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial - silicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon market has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the increase in production cuts and the re - distribution of industrial - chain profits [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - Price and Spread: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.25% to 355,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 128.57% to 800 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 72% to - 350 [2]. - Fundamentals: In November, tin - ore imports increased by 29.81%. In December, SMM refined - tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. SHEF and social inventories decreased [2]. Aluminum Industry - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.58% to 24,000 yuan/ton. The AL 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: In December, electrolytic - aluminum production increased by 3.97%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 8.18% [5]. Nickel Industry - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.73% to 149,050 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 310 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: China's refined - nickel product output decreased by 9.38%, and imports increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - Price and Spread: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 1.08% to 13,800 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 2.5%. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - Price and Spread: SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.43% to 23,600 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamentals: In December, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%. The recycled - aluminum alloy inventory decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - Price and Spread: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.75% to 138,500 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 540 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamentals: In December, lithium - carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.5%. Total inventory decreased by 12.23% [13]. Copper Industry - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 1.28% to 102,085 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamentals: In December, electrolytic - copper production increased by 6.8%. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 16.65% [15]. Zinc Industry - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.53% to 24,170 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamentals: In December, refined - zinc production decreased by 7.24%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 11.69% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Price and Spread: East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 445 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamentals: National industrial - silicon production decreased by 1.15%. Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46%. Social inventory decreased by 0.9% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - Price and Spread: The main - contract price of polysilicon decreased by 8.04% to 53,610 yuan/ton. The current - month - to - first - continuous spread increased by 1,215 yuan/ton to 1,415 yuan/ton [22]. - Fundamentals: Polysilicon production decreased slightly by 0.83% on a weekly basis. The silicon - wafer inventory increased by 13.11% [22].