《农产品》日报-20260109

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The apple market shows that the number of inquiries in production areas increases, the arrival volume at wholesale markets decreases, and prices are stable. As of January 7, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas is 720.90 million tons, with a slightly faster destocking speed compared to the previous week, but still lower than the same period last year. Affected by last year's weather and the price advantage of citrus, the pressure to clear apple inventory remains high. The futures market has a slight reduction in positions and is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Futures Market: The price of the Apple 2605 (main contract) is 9531 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; the price of the Apple 2610 contract is 8451 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The futures position decreases by 7.82% [1]. - Wholesale Market: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market, Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market, and Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market decreases by 58.33%, 55.56%, and 52.00% respectively [1]. - Inventory and Profit: The national cold - storage inventory is 720.90 million tons, down 1.73% from the previous value; the factory - warehouse delivery profit is 336 yuan/ton, down 12.50% [1]. Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, downstream buyers purchase as needed, the number of buyers inspecting goods increases, and the transaction situation improves. The spot market price stabilizes, and the generation progress of new - season warehouse receipts accelerates. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking situation and the actual destocking progress. In the short term, there is no obvious driving force in the fundamentals, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates due to the cooling market sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Futures Market: The price of the Red Dates 2605 (main contract) is 9075 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous value; the position increases by 2.55% [3]. - Spot Market: The price of Cangzhou's super - grade red dates is 9470 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of first - grade red dates remains unchanged [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 3110, up 3.39% [3]. Group 3: Oilseeds and Oils Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Palm Oil: With the release of the MPOB report next week, if there is a positive impact of improved exports in January after the release of negative factors, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may rise to 4200 - 4250 ringgit. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is in a range - bound shock, and its future trend depends on the Malaysian palm oil trend and the pre - holiday stocking demand. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 8500 - 8600 yuan [9]. - Soybean Oil: The recent rise of CBOT soybeans supports CBOT soybean oil. However, due to the uncertainty of the industrial consumption of US soybean oil and the continuous decline of international crude oil, CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term narrow - range shock adjustment. After the adjustment, it may decline due to the upcoming South American soybean harvest. The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are good, but the overall stocking volume this year is lower than last year, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues to put pressure on the soybean market. Domestic soybean oil may decline after a short - term shock [9]. - Rapeseed Oil: If the trade relationship between China and Canada is repaired, it will help replenish the domestic rapeseed oil inventory. Affected by this negative sentiment, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of next week's consultations, and the market is generally regarded as weak [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Soybean Oil: The price of the Y2605 contract is 7944 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous value; the basis is 502 yuan/ton, up 8.76% [9]. - Palm Oil: The price of the P2605 contract is 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous value; the basis remains unchanged [9]. - Rapeseed Oil: The price of the OI605 contract is 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% from the previous value; the basis is 744 yuan/ton, down 7.58% [9]. Group 4: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the corn market, the trading activity in the Northeast is average with stable prices, and in the North China region, there is a sentiment of hoarding, but enterprises are reluctant to raise prices due to losses. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises need to replenish inventory, but they are restricted by high prices, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. In terms of policies, the targeted auction of imported corn continues, and the corn bidding sales have started, which will suppress the upward space of corn prices. In the short term, the corn price is firm, but attention should be paid to policy changes [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Corn: The price of the Corn 2603 contract is 2266 yuan/ton, up 0.80% from the previous value; the position increases by 2.41% [11]. - Corn Starch: The price of the Corn Starch 2603 contract is 2546 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous value; the basis is 167 yuan/ton, down 4.02% [11]. Group 5: Meal Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybeans are strongly affected by funds and sentiment, and the market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report next Monday. With the continuous appreciation of the RMB, the Brazilian crushing margin is improving, and domestic purchasing is accelerating. The visit of Canada to China brings positive signals, and the price of domestic rapeseed meal drops, which drags down the soybean meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, the soybean meal price is in a short - term range - bound shock, with the upper limit affected by policies [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Soybean Meal: The price of the M2605 contract is 2782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous value; the basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 19.09% [14]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price of the RM2605 contract is 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from the previous value; the basis is 82 yuan/ton, up 15.49% [14]. Group 6: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Brazilian sugarcane crushing is coming to an end, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly. Thailand's sugar production is still lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the price will fluctuate horizontally in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents/pound in the short term. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand is coming, and the group transactions are good. However, considering that it is the peak season of the sugar - making season, the market is cautious, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Futures Market: The price of the Sugar 2605 contract is 5279 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous value; the position decreases by 2.33% [16]. - Spot Market: The price of Nanning's sugar remains unchanged at 5350 yuan/ton; the price of Kunming's sugar is 5230 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous value [16]. - Industry Situation: The national sugar production cumulative value is 105 million tons, down 23.24% year - on - year; the sales volume cumulative value is 35 million tons, down 42.53% year - on - year [16]. Group 7: Live Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot pig price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, the market demand has declined significantly. The northern pig supply has decreased, but the high price has affected the slaughtering enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm. The southern demand has declined significantly, putting pressure on the spot price. Although there is still some supplementary stocking in the second - fattening market, the overall enthusiasm is weak. The market is betting on the pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that there will be a large - scale supply in January, and the futures price has limited upward space and may face pressure later [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Futures Market: The price of the main live - pig contract is 12200 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous value; the position decreases by 0.08% [17]. - Spot Market: The price of live pigs in Henan is 12900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous value; the price in Shandong is 13250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. - Industry Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses is 225557, down 0.77% from the previous value; the self - breeding profit per head is - 35 yuan, up 73.41% from the previous value [17]. Group 8: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The ICE cotton futures have declined due to the weekly export sales report and technical pressure. The US cotton export sales have decreased. It is expected that the US cotton will maintain a volatile trend. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are strongly supporting prices, and the basis of cotton enterprises' quotations is strong. The core driving forces are the strong expectation of reduced cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream inventory replenishment. However, it is restricted by the low cost of foreign cotton and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price is in a bullish pattern, but there may be a callback after continuous price increases [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Futures Market: The price of the Cotton 2605 contract is 14740 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from the previous value; the position decreases by 6.76% [19]. - Spot Market: The price of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton is 15738 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous value; the price of FC Index:M: 1% is 12599 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous value [19]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory is 578.47 million tons, up 8.1% month - on - month; the cotton outbound shipment volume is 53.46 million tons, up 22.6% month - on - month [19]. Group 9: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Based on the previous chick sales volume, it is estimated that the laying hens entering the egg - laying period in January are those hatched in September 2025, with a 1.53% month - on - month decrease in chick sales. The number of old hens to be slaughtered in January is expected to be more than the number of new - laying hens, and the laying - hen inventory may continue to decrease, alleviating the supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced goods, and the spot price remains stable with a slight upward trend. The inventory at all levels is low, and with the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the downstream stocking demand is emerging. However, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Futures Market: The price of the Egg 03 contract is 3009 yuan/500KG, down 0.07% from the previous value; the price of the Egg 04 contract is 3277 yuan/500KG, up 0.40% from the previous value [21]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price is 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.78% from the previous value; the basis is 238 yuan/500KG, up 12.86% from the previous value [21]. - Industry Indicators: The egg - feed ratio is 2.34, down 0.43% from the previous value; the breeding profit is - 26.60 yuan/feather, down 2.82% from the previous value [21].