原木期货日报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from last week, a week-on-week increase of 8%. The total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from last week, a week-on-week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continues to have a deep discount for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak and the upside is limited. Overall, there is a lack of contradictions, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 8th, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from the previous day; log 2603 was 778.5, down 3.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.45%; log 2605 was 789.0, down 1.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.19%; log 2607 was 800.5, down 1.5 from the previous day, a decline of 0.19% [1] - The basis of the main contract was -38.5 on January 8th, up 3.5 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on January 8th [1] - The latest round of foreign market quotes for 4-meter medium A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars; the CFR price of 11.8-meter spruce remained unchanged at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 9th, the RMB to US dollar exchange rate was 6.981, down 0.002 from the previous day, a decline of 0%; the import theoretical cost was 756.29 yuan, down 13.52 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30th, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters from October 31st, an increase of 1.16% [1] - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52 on November 30th, an increase of 3 from the previous month, an increase of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2nd, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 5.12%. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 5.29% [1][3] Demand - As of January 2nd, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a decrease of 3%. In Shandong, it was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, an increase of 4%; in Jiangsu, it was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 27,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a decrease of 11% [3]