贵金属期现日报-20260109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For gold, as funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival and the price correction is in place, the market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For silver, long - position funds have significantly increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly alleviated, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After exchanges like CME raise margins, the irrational upward movement driven by short - term capital sentiment is expected to end, leading to volatility reduction. Attention should be paid to the potential回调 risk caused by the rebalancing of the global commodity index, and in high - volatility markets, a light - position, low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens and volatility narrows, and with a strong external market, platinum and palladium can be bought lightly at around the 20 - day moving average. Palladium is relatively stronger, and shorting the platinum - palladium ratio can be attempted [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g on January 8, down 0.96 yuan or 0.10% from January 7 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg on January 8, down 840 yuan or 4.35% from January 7 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/g on January 8, down 23.50 yuan or 3.93% from January 7 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/g on January 8, down 15.25 yuan or 3.20% from January 7 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up $20.80 or 0.47% from January 7 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69 on January 8, down $1.29 or - 1.65% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60 on January 8, down $7.80 or - 0.34% from January 7 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50 on January 8, up $16.50 or 0.91% from January 7 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up $21.49 or 0.48% from January 7 [1]. - London silver was at $76.97 on January 8, down $1.30 or - 1.66% from January 7 [1]. - Platinum spot was at $2267.45 on January 8, down $30.55 or - 1.33% from January 7 [1]. - Palladium spot was at $1780.26 on January 8, up $24.53 or 1.40% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/g on January 8, down 3.34 yuan or - 0.33% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/10g on January 8, down 1027 yuan or - 5.30% from January 7 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold 9995 was at 580 yuan/g on January 8, down 26 yuan or - 4.26% from January 7 [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 112, down 187 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 0.00% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 10.34, up 0.69 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 73.40% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.28, down 0.01 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.70% [1]. Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 1.23 or 2.16% from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 2.31 or 4.45% from the previous value [1]. - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 0.02 or - 1.24% from the previous value [1]. - The GZFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.01 or - 0.75% from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.04 percentage points or 1.0% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.6% from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 0.04 percentage points or 2.1% from the previous value [1]. - The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12 or 0.12% from the previous value [1]. - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.0112 or - 0.16% from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 637,647 kg on January 8, up 84,218 kg or 15.22% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 16,076 or - 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 3,257,982 or - 0.73% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,345,676, up 16,280 or 0.08% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,180,871, down 5,093 or 0.00% from the previous value [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,067, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,215, up 115.60 or 0.72% from the previous value [1].