鸡蛋市场周报：现货价格低位上涨，提振期价同步收涨-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The egg market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The inventory of laying hens has continued to decline from a high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment of the breeding end is still lower than that of the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the slight recovery of egg prices recently has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level shock state, and the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month contracts under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Performance: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed up. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3040 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 89 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - Market Outlook: The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level shock state, and the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month contracts under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The egg futures March contract fluctuated and rebounded. The position volume was 250,854 lots, an increase of 39,614 lots compared with last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,655, and the net short position decreased compared with last week's - 45,394 [10]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of eggs were 7 lots [16]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of eggs was reported at 3302 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 226 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with last week. The basis between the active March contract price of eggs and the average spot price was reported at + 262 yuan per ton [20]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 546 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [27]. - Related Commodity Spot Prices: As of January 8, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.61 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply - side: As of November 30, 2025, the laying hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The new chick index nationwide was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [39]. - Elimination Index and Age: As of November 30, 2025, the elimination laying hen index nationwide was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The elimination chicken age nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2351.37 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3200 yuan per ton [48]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of January 2, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.39 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [55]. - Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Elimination Chickens: As of January 2, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main producing areas was reported at 7.9 yuan per kilogram [59]. - Egg Monthly Export Volume: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, an increase of 1091.86 tons compared with 11,953.66 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 9.13%. It decreased by 349.02 tons compared with 13,394.53 tons in the previous month [65].