红枣市场周报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.06%. The acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes is almost finished, and the market focus has shifted to the consumer side. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the festival stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak of sales. Attention should be paid to the actual sales speed at the terminal and the performance of inventory reduction in channels [10][12]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in output. As of January 8, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [38][42]. - In November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kilograms, with an export value of 53,004,642 yuan and an average export price of 14,983.36 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export was 29,291,188 kilograms, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50% [46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side. The acquisition in the production areas is basically over, and the flow of goods in the market is generally stable. Traders commonly stockpile raw materials in Xinjiang. As the festival approaches, the demand for stocking is expected to drive the market [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 2.06%. As of the end of the week, the latest price was 9,150, up 35 or 0.38% [12]. - Top 20 positions: As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 20,939 lots [13]. - Warehouse receipts: As of the end of the week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 2,523 [16]. - Futures spread: As of the end of the week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 160 yuan/ton [20]. - Basis: As of the end of the week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 320 yuan/ton [23]. - Purchase price in the main production areas: As of January 9, 2026, the purchase price of general jujubes in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26]. - Spot price of first - grade jujubes: As of January 9, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [30]. - Spot price of special - grade jujubes: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.47 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.5 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [38]. - Supply side - Production: The jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [42]. - Demand side - Export volume: In November 2025, China's jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kilograms, with an export value of 53,004,642 yuan and an average export price of 14,983.36 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 60.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.18% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export was 29,291,188 kilograms, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.50% [46]. - Demand side - BOCE trading: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao Pai had a small amount of transactions [51]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is provided, but specific data is not summarized here [52]. - Stock market - Haoxiangni: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is presented, but specific data is not summarized here [54].