螺纹钢市场周报：炉料扰动+需求减弱，螺纹期价先扬后抑-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of strong expectations but weak reality, with the market likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is advisable to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 3144 yuan/ton (+22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton (+20) [7]. - Rebar production increased to 191.04 million tons (+2.82), a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons [7]. - The apparent demand further declined, with this period's apparent demand at 174.96 million tons (-25.48), a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons [7]. - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08), a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [9]. - Cost - aspect: Iron ore port inventories continued to increase, and coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter range - bound trading [9]. - Technical - aspect: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell, with technical support at the 3100 level [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell this week and was weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 9th, the spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse receipts and net positions: On January 9, the rebar warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1811 tons week - on - week, and the net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract increased by 30564 lots [22]. - Spot price and basis: On January 9, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the national average price increased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, with the basis on the 9th at 196 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market - Raw material prices: On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [34]. - Iron ore supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased [38]. - Coking plant situation: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory increased, and the available days of coking coal increased [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply - side - Crude steel production: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [46]. - Rebar production: On January 8, the weekly rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons week - on - week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week - on - week [50][53]. - Electric furnace steel: The average operating rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.34 percentage points month - on - month [53]. - Rebar inventory: On January 8, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons month - on - month [56]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - Real estate: From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.5% [59]. - Infrastructure: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [59]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62].