沪锌市场周报：采需平淡库存累增，预计锌价震荡调整-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will enter an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the support at MA10, with the range between 23,700 and 24,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back this week, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. The closing price of the main contract was 23,970 yuan/ton [4] - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, the US labor market shows no obvious pressure, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000; US bond yields rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, but domestic inventories have rebounded significantly; the accumulation of LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 23,970 yuan/ton, up 695 yuan/ton or 2.99% from December 31, 2025; as of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,135 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton or 0.29% from January 2, 2026 [7] - Net Position Adjustment: As of January 9, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 4,778 lots, a decrease of 638 lots from December 31, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 218,053 lots, an increase of 22,611 lots or 11.57% from December 31, 2025 [14] - Price Spreads: As of January 9, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025; the lead - zinc futures price spread was 6,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025 [17] - Spot Premiums: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,010 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton or 2.78% from December 31, 2025. The spot premium was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 42.57 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.89 US dollars/ton from December 31, 2025 [23] - Inventory Changes: As of January 8, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 375 tons or 0.35% from December 31, 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons or 4.34% from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 113,300 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 4.04% from December 31, 2025 [26] 3. Industry Situation - Upstream: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32] - Supply Side - Global Supply Shortage: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 0.1084 million tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 0.0442 million tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc gap was 0.06 million tons, compared with a gap of 0.0648 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report shows that the supply - demand balance of the global zinc market was - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [37][38] - Expected Output Decline: In November 2025, the zinc output was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%; from January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41] - Increased Exports: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45] - Downstream - Galvanized Sheets: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49] - Real Estate: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 1.178591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55] - Infrastructure: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from the previous month and a decrease of 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61] - Home Appliances: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; from January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63] - Automobiles: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the automobile output was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [68]