沪锡市场周报：美元走强进口压力，预计锡价震荡调整-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai Tin will adjust at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the battle at the 350,000 mark. If it falls below the MA10, it may be under pressure again [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. The closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton [5] - Market Outlook: - Macro - aspect: The US labor market shows no obvious pressure. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000. The US Treasury yield rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high [5] - Fundamentals: - Supply: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials, most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will be no year - on - year increase. The export volume of Indonesia in November increased significantly, alleviating concerns about the limited supply from Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching to open, increasing import pressure [5] - Demand: Recently, downstream enterprises purchased on demand. Inventories continued to decline, and the spot premium was 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories remained stable, and the spot premium increased [5] - Technical Aspect: The position decreased and the price adjusted, and the long - position sentiment declined [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Price Changes: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 352,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 25,230 yuan/ton or 7.7% from December 31. As of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME Tin was 43,750 US dollars/ton, a rise of 3,280 US dollars/ton or 8.1% from January 2. As of December 31, 2025, the basis of Shanghai Tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 0 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - Ratio Changes: As of January 9, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.54, an increase of 0.09 from December 31. As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.07, a decrease of 0.02 from December 31 [15] - Position Changes: As of January 9, 2026, the position of Shanghai Tin was 105,695 lots, an increase of 17,907 lots or 20.4% from December 31. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -3,764 lots, a decrease of 2,393 lots from December 22, 2025 [19] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production: In November 2025, the monthly import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - Tin Ore Processing Fees: On January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. On January 9, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 337,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.54% from January 8, 2026. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 341,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.53% from January 8, 2026 [31] - Refined Tin Import Window: As of January 8, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 2,266.55 yuan/ton, a rise of 7,509.43 yuan/ton from January 2, 2026. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [36][37] - Inventory Changes: As of January 8, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons or 0.28% from December 31. As of January 9, 2026, the total tin inventory was 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons or 12.61% from last week. As of January 9, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 6,429 tons, a decrease of 1,013 tons or 13.61% from December 31 [40] 3.3.2 Demand Side - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: On January 8, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,436.1, a rise of 352.97 or 4.98% from December 31. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431.84 billion pieces, an increase of 36.57072 billion pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [43][44] - Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. As of November 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [47]