热轧卷板市场周报：多空交织热卷期价冲高回调-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short term, influenced by macro factors, price fluctuations are amplified. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3250 - 3350, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary a. Market Review - As of January 9th, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3294 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+20). Hot - rolled coil production increased to 305.51 million tons (+1), with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. Apparent demand declined to 308.34 million tons (-2.43), with a year - on - year decrease of 5.33 million tons. Factory inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83), with a year - on - year increase of 58.22 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and 12.99 percentage points from last year [8] b. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office predicts a slight interest - rate cut by the Fed this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the replacement policy has improved the industry's operating pressure. - Cost - aspect: Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, supporting the futures price. Coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter a range - bound pattern. - Technical - aspect: The HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. The daily K - line is above multiple moving averages, and the MACD shows an upward rebound [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price Performance - This week, the futures price of the HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. It was weaker than the HC2610 contract, with a spread of - 24 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [16] b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 9th, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 139,537 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,349 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased by 19,787 contracts to 6,907 contracts [21] c. Spot Price Performance - On January 9th, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 36 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [25] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On January 9th, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [30] b. Ore Shipment and Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume at Chinese ports increased, with the 45 - port arrival volume rising by 155.0 million tons [37] c. Ore and Billet Inventories - This week, iron ore port inventories increased to 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons. On January 8th, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei, was 1407,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,400 tons [42] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased to 71.61%, and the coke inventory decreased to 44.17 million tons [46] 4. Industry Conditions a. Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased to 305.51 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 million tons [50][53][58] b. Demand Side - In 2025, from January to November, automobile production and sales, as well as home appliance production, increased year - on - year [61]